国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251219

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - PX: Polyester production remains at a high level, there is a supply gap in PX, and profits have reached a new high. PXN has hit a new high [11]. - PTA: With a tight supply - demand situation for the cost - side PX and high polyester production, PTA's valuation continues to rise. It is recommended to operate within the 4500 - 4800 range and exit the 5 - 9 positive spread [11]. - MEG: The ethylene glycol production has continued to rise this week. The supply reduction is insufficient to change the future inventory accumulation pattern, resulting in a range - bound market [11]. - Rubber: It shows a wide - range fluctuation pattern. The fundamentals of the natural rubber market resonate with the commodity market, causing the rubber price to surge multiple times. However, high inventory restricts the upside potential [13][15]. - Synthetic rubber: The upward trend has slowed down. The fundamental data has shown marginal weakness, and inventory data for butadiene and butadiene rubber is slightly bearish [16][18]. - Asphalt: It is in a low - level oscillation state. The factory production and inventory rates have changed slightly, and the price is affected by the overall market and supply - demand relationship [20][21]. - LLDPE: The supply elasticity is limited, and the valuation continues to face pressure. The raw material price fluctuates, downstream demand weakens marginally, and the supply side may face pressure from high capacity and weak demand [34][35]. - PP: The factory warehouse warrants are cancelled, and the futures price moves sideways. The cost support is limited, downstream demand is weak, and the market is expected to remain weak [37][38]. - Caustic soda: It will still face pressure in the future. It has a pattern of high production and high inventory. The demand is weak, and there is pressure to reduce inventory through price cuts before the Spring Festival [40][41]. - Pulp: It shows a wide - range fluctuation pattern. The coniferous pulp price is affected by futures market capital games, while the broad - leaf pulp price is supported by rising external prices and tight domestic supply. Port inventory has decreased, but the core contradiction lies in supply and demand [46][47][49]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet remains stable. The spot price is mainly stable, the market trading is average, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [51][52]. - Methanol: It has support during the oscillation. The port inventory has decreased, and the macro - situation provides some support [54][56]. - Urea: It has support during the oscillation. The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the futures price has rebounded. It is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern with support in the medium term [59][60][61]. - Soda ash: There are few changes in the spot market. The production is at a high level, and downstream demand is stable, with low - price restocking [63][64]. - LPG: It is firm in the short term but faces pressure in the long - term trend. The price and inventory data have changed, and there are multiple factors affecting the market [67][68]. - Propylene: It is in a short - term narrow - range adjustment. The price and related industrial data have shown certain changes [68]. - PVC: The rebound is difficult to sustain. It has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and although there is a short - term rebound space, the overall situation is difficult to change in the short term [76][77]. - Fuel oil: It is in short - term consolidation with support at the lower level. The futures price and spot price have changed, and the market shows a certain support [79][80]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It shows a narrow - range fluctuation, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external spot market has narrowed [80]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): It is in an oscillatory market. The futures price fluctuates, and the freight rate, shipping capacity, and demand have all shown certain characteristics [82][90]. - Staple fiber: It is in a short - term low - level oscillation and faces pressure in the medium term. The futures price rises, and the spot market shows certain trading characteristics [93]. - Bottle chips: It is in a short - term low - level oscillation and faces pressure in the medium term. The upstream raw material futures rise, and the spot market trading is average [94]. - Offset printing paper: It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach. The spot price is stable, the market demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [96][97]. - Pure benzene: It shows a short - term oscillatory pattern. The inventory has increased, and the price has slightly decreased [101][102][103]. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - Market Data: The closing prices, price changes, and spreads of PX, PTA, and MEG futures and spot markets have changed. For example, the PX main contract closed at 6862 yuan/ton, up 1.33% [5]. - Market Dynamics: The PX price has increased, and the PX - naphtha price difference has reached a new high. The production of PTA and MEG has shown certain changes [6][9]. - Trend and Recommendations: PX profits are at a new high, PTA's valuation rises, and MEG is in a range - bound market [11]. Rubber - Market Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of rubber futures have changed. The spot price of natural rubber has increased slightly [13]. - Industry News: The fundamentals of the natural rubber market resonate with the commodity market, and the price has surged multiple times. High inventory restricts the upside potential [14][15]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of synthetic rubber futures have changed. The prices of butadiene and synthetic rubber have decreased slightly [16]. - Industry News: The inventory of butadiene and synthetic rubber has increased, and the upward trend has slowed down [17][18]. Asphalt - Market Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of asphalt futures have changed. The factory production and inventory rates have slightly increased [21]. - Market Information: The inventory of asphalt sample factories has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The production rate is expected to change [32][33]. LLDPE - Market Data: The closing price of LLDPE futures has slightly decreased, and the spot price has also declined. The basis has weakened [34]. - Market Situation: The raw material price fluctuates, downstream demand weakens marginally, and the supply side may face pressure [35]. PP - Market Data: The closing price of PP futures has increased slightly, and the spot price has changed little. The basis has weakened [37]. - Market Situation: The cost support is limited, downstream demand is weak, and the market is expected to remain weak [38]. Caustic Soda - Market Data: The futures price of caustic soda has rebounded, and the spot price has declined. The basis has changed [40]. - Market Situation: It has a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and the demand is weak, facing pressure to reduce inventory through price cuts [41]. Pulp - Market Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of pulp futures have changed. The spot price of pulp has changed slightly [46]. - Industry News: The coniferous pulp price is affected by futures market capital games, and the broad - leaf pulp price is supported by external factors. Port inventory has decreased [47][49]. Glass - Market Data: The closing price of glass futures has increased slightly, and the spot price remains stable. The basis has changed [52]. - Market Situation: The spot price is mainly stable, the market trading is average, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [52]. Methanol - Market Data: The closing price of methanol futures has increased slightly, and the spot price has changed little. The basis has strengthened [54]. - Market Situation: The port inventory has decreased, and the macro - situation provides some support [56]. Urea - Market Data: The closing price of urea futures has increased slightly, and the spot price has changed little. The basis and spreads have changed [59]. - Market Situation: The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the futures price has rebounded. It is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern with support in the medium term [60][61]. Soda Ash - Market Data: The closing price of soda ash futures has increased slightly, and the spot price remains stable. The basis and spreads have changed [64]. - Market Situation: The production is at a high level, and downstream demand is stable, with low - price restocking [64]. LPG and Propylene - Market Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of LPG and propylene futures have changed. The related industrial data such as PDH production rate has also changed [68]. - Market Information: The CP paper prices of propane and butane have decreased, and there are multiple device maintenance plans [73][74][75]. PVC - Market Data: The futures price of PVC has rebounded, and the spot price has changed little. The basis and spreads have changed [76]. - Market Situation: It has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and although there is a short - term rebound space, the overall situation is difficult to change in the short term [77]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Market Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures have changed. The spot price has increased [80]. - Market Situation: Fuel oil is in short - term consolidation, and low - sulfur fuel oil shows a narrow - range fluctuation, with a narrowing price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels [80]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Market Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of the container shipping index futures have changed. The freight rate index has shown certain changes [82]. - Market Situation: The futures price fluctuates, and the freight rate, shipping capacity, and demand have all shown certain characteristics. The 2602 contract is expected to oscillate between 1600 - 1800 points [90][91]. Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips - Market Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of staple fiber and bottle chips futures have changed. The spot price has changed slightly [93]. - Market Situation: The futures price of staple fiber rises, and the spot market shows certain trading characteristics. The upstream raw material futures of bottle chips rise, and the spot market trading is average [93][94]. Offset Printing Paper - Market Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of offset printing paper futures have changed. The spot price remains stable [96]. - Market Situation: The spot price is stable, the market demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [97][98]. Pure Benzene - Market Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of pure benzene futures have changed. The spot price has decreased slightly [101]. - Market Situation: The inventory has increased, and the price has slightly decreased [102][103].