库存去化速度放缓，碳酸锂盘面冲高回落

Group 1: Market Analysis - On December 18, 2025, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 106,800 yuan/ton and closed at 106,160 yuan/ton, with a -0.79% change compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,013,916 lots, and the open interest was 672,711 lots, up from 668,589 lots the previous day. The current basis was -10,850 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 15,636 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Spot - According to SMM data, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 95,300 - 99,800 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 93,900 - 96,000 yuan/ton, also up 500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,340 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The market transactions were rare, mainly supported by the rigid demand of some enterprises. The supply of lithium salt plants was stable, with an expected 3% month-on-month increase in domestic lithium carbonate production in December. The demand was supported by the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets, but the production schedules of cells and cathode materials were expected to decline slightly month-on-month in December. The industry maintained a pattern of "steady increase in supply and stable demand at a high level", with the de-stocking trend continuing but at a slower pace. The weekly inventory decreased by 1,044 tons, and the total inventory was 110,425 tons [2] Group 3: Strategy - The decline of lithium carbonate was due to technical overbought repair and profit-taking. The continuous de-stocking, certain consumption support, and supply uncertainty were key factors supporting the strong price. In the short term, it was likely to maintain a high-level shock. Attention should be paid to the production capacity release rhythm and capital trends, and be vigilant against the intensified fluctuations caused by the marginal changes in supply and demand [3] Group 4: Trading Recommendations - Unilateral: Wait and see in the short term - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [5]