超跌修复，镍不锈钢价格低位反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The rebound of nickel and stainless steel prices is due to technical oversold repair and improved macro - liquidity, not a substantial improvement in fundamentals. The nickel market has high inventories and a supply - surplus pattern, so nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. The stainless steel market faces low demand, high inventories, and a declining cost center, and is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On December 18, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 113,600 yuan/ton and closed at 113,940 yuan/ton, a 1.07% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 97,677 (- 41,919) lots, and the open interest was 85,352 (- 8,713) lots. The Indonesian government's proposed nickel ore production target of about 250 million tons in the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB), a significant drop from 379 million tons in 2025 RKAB, promoted the nickel price rebound [1] - In the nickel ore market, there were recent transactions, and prices remained stable. In the Philippines, a 1.4% nickel ore FOB40 transaction was completed at the northern mine Eramen. Shipping efficiency was okay. Downstream factories' production plans remained unchanged, and their price - pressing mentality for raw material nickel ore procurement might ease. In Indonesia, the (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price in December was expected to decline by 0.11 - 0.18 dollars/wet ton. The current mainstream premium was + 25, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 26. Due to the rainy season in Indonesian mines, nickel ore supply decreased, but some iron plants had production - cut plans, so the change in domestic trade premium was limited and expected to remain flat [1] - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 119,800 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average. Jinchuan's supply was tight, and the premium increased. The spot premiums of other refined nickel brands decreased slightly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 350 yuan/ton to 6,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 37,513 (- 748) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 253,998 (+ 690) tons [2] Strategy - With high inventories and a supply - surplus pattern unchanged, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. The strategy is mainly range - trading for the unilateral position, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On December 18, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2602 opened at 12,380 yuan/ton and closed at 12,420 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 101,495 (- 41,522) lots, and the open interest was 133,015 (- 4,171) lots. The slight rebound of stainless steel was due to technical oversold repair and the recovery of raw material nickel prices, but the strength was limited, indicating low market confidence [3] - With the rebound of the futures market, the spot price quotation was repaired, market confidence increased, and the transaction of low - price resources was good. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,650 (+ 50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,650 (+ 50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 330 - 530 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 884.0 yuan/nickel point [3] Strategy - Due to low demand, high inventories, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless steel is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]