化工日报：EG负荷再度回升至7成以上-20251219

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core View - EG load has risen above 70%. The closing price of the EG main contract was 3767 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan/ton, +0.24% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3654 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton, -0.38% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China was -22 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -91 US dollars/ton (up 0 US dollars/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -991 yuan/ton (up 59 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 84.4 tons (up 2.5 tons month-on-month); according to Longzhong data, it was 61.7 tons (down 13.8 tons month-on-month). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 11.8 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports are 3 tons, with an overall slightly high level, and the main ports are expected to have a slight inventory build-up [1]. - On the supply side, as maintenance is implemented, the domestic ethylene glycol load has decreased from a high level, and the short-term supply pressure has been relieved, but high supply will resume in January. On the overseas supply side, the arrival of foreign ethylene glycol ships has returned to normal this week, and the rising trend of port inventory can be moderately alleviated. On the demand side, the polyester load remains strong with low inventory, but orders are marginally weakening [2]. - The pressure of new production is large. As port inventory rises, the liquidity of goods in the market increases. The pressure of inventory build-up will be alleviated if short-term maintenance is implemented, but the pressure of inventory build-up from January to February is still large, and further production cuts are needed for balance [3]. Summary According to the Catalog Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3767 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan/ton, +0.24% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3654 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton, -0.38% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China was -22 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -91 US dollars/ton (up 0 US dollars/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -991 yuan/ton (up 59 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - As maintenance is implemented, the domestic ethylene glycol load has decreased from a high level, and the short-term supply pressure has been relieved, but high supply will resume in January [2]. International Spread - No specific content provided. Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - Inventory at a low level, the polyester load remains strong, but orders are marginally weakening [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 84.4 tons (up 2.5 tons month-on-month); according to Longzhong data, it was 61.7 tons (down 13.8 tons month-on-month). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 11.8 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports are 3 tons, with an overall slightly high level, and the main ports are expected to have a slight inventory build-up [1]. - The arrival of foreign ethylene glycol ships has returned to normal this week, and the rising trend of port inventory can be moderately alleviated [2].