PVC社会库存小幅去化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply - demand situation of PVC has marginally improved but remains weak. Attention should be paid to subsequent device maintenance and macro - side anti - involution sentiment [3]. - The supply - demand situation of caustic soda has slightly improved. Future focus should be on changes in liquid chlorine prices, device maintenance, and the implementation of macro - side anti - involution details [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures and Basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,708 yuan/ton (+285), the East China basis was - 278 yuan/ton (-265), and the South China basis was - 268 yuan/ton (-275) [1]. - Spot Prices: The East China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,430 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,440 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Upstream Production Profits: The semi - coke price was 780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,880 yuan/ton (-25), the calcium carbide profit was - 34 yuan/ton (-25), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit was - 1,102 yuan/ton (-83), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit was - 520 yuan/ton (-48), and the PVC export profit was - 6.7 dollars/ton (-3.6) [1]. - Inventory and Operation Rates: PVC factory inventory was 34.4 tons (+1.8), PVC social inventory was 51.7 tons (-1.2), the PVC calcium carbide method operation rate was 77.01% (-2.12%), the PVC ethylene method operation rate was 74.06% (-2.61%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 76.12% (-2.27%) [1]. - Downstream Orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 64.9 tons (-5.0) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures and Basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,199 yuan/ton (+56), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 51 yuan/ton (-56) [1]. - Spot Prices: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 720 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,140 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream Production Profits: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,229 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 665.0 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was - 406.96 yuan/ton (+75.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 330.39 yuan/ton (+20.00) [2]. - Inventory and Operation Rates: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 46.47 tons (+0.76), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 3.51 tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate was 84.50% (-1.70%) [2]. - Downstream Operation Rates: The alumina operation rate was 86.11% (-0.09%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China was 62.06% (-0.68%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 89.62% (+0.00%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market rebounded due to anti - involution sentiment, with cost support emerging. The news of the planned shutdown of a 450,000 - ton PVC device by Westlake Chemical in the US by the end of December 2025 boosted the market sentiment. However, the trading volume was light after the spot price increase. The supply decreased slightly this week, but the supply side remained abundant. The downstream operation rate generally declined, and the inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level compared to the same period. The comprehensive chlor - alkali production profit at the upstream PVC end decreased, and the production profit of calcium carbide and semi - coke was in the red. The PVC futures warehouse receipts were at a high level, and the export profit decreased, but the export orders increased [3]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market rebounded due to anti - involution sentiment, with a slight improvement in supply - demand. The spot price was mainly stable, and the trading volume improved at low prices. The inventory pressure in Shandong was partially relieved. The supply - side operation rate decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The alumina factory operation rate was stable, and the demand from non - aluminum industries weakened. Attention should be paid to the price change of liquid chlorine, device maintenance, and the implementation of anti - involution details [3]. Strategy - PVC: The single - side strategy is to expect a volatile market, the inter - delivery strategy is to wait and see, and there is no cross - variety strategy [4][5]. - Caustic Soda: The single - side strategy is to expect a volatile market, the inter - delivery strategy is to wait and see, and there is no cross - variety strategy [5].