黑色建材日报：市场情绪谨慎，钢价持续震荡-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market sentiment is cautious, with steel prices continuing to fluctuate. The iron ore market has iron water production declining, and ore prices maintaining a volatile trend. The double - coke market sentiment is rising, with both futures and spot prices showing a small resonance. The thermal coal spot market maintains a downward trend, and the market sentiment is cautious [1][3][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,125 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,277 yuan/ton. The spot steel trading was generally weak, the basis shrank overall, and the national building materials trading volume was 102,203 [1] - Supply and Demand Logic: Building materials production increased slightly, inventory continued to decline, and demand remained stable. Plate production declined slightly, but demand resilience remained. Short - term raw material disturbances were frequent, and attention should be paid to environmental protection, seasonal production cuts, demand and de - stocking changes, profit conditions, cost support, raw material replenishment, steel exports, and domestic policies [1] - Strategy: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The iron ore futures price fluctuated. The 2605 contract closed at 777.5 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan or 1.63% from the previous settlement price. The spot price rose slightly, and the trading volume was 982,000 tons, a 18.17% increase from the previous day [3] - Supply and Demand Logic: The port inventory showed an increasing trend, and the supply was relatively loose. The downstream finished product demand declined seasonally, the inventory pressure increased, the iron water production continued to decline, but the short - term production decline was beneficial to steel prices, and the market pessimism eased. Attention should be paid to the actual production cut rhythm of steel mills and the change in port inventory structure [3] - Strategy: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [4] Double - Coke - Market Analysis: The double - coke market led the rise in the black sector, with significant increases in the closing prices of the main contracts of coking coal and coke. The import volume of Mongolian coal decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The spot market followed the futures market, and the market sentiment improved [4] - Supply and Demand Logic: The supply of coking coal increased slightly, but domestic mine production remained low. Downstream coke enterprises had low enthusiasm for replenishing inventory, and steel mills mainly made rigid procurement. Coke production declined slightly due to environmental protection, and demand was limited. In the future, iron water production is expected to decline seasonally, and supply is expected to be changeable due to policy disturbances. Attention should be paid to coking coal supply, warehouse receipt pressure, steel mill profits, and winter storage plans [4][5] - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke are expected to have a volatile market, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [5] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production area, coal prices continued to be weak, and downstream procurement was on - demand. Some mines' sales improved after price cuts, and a few high - quality mines began to increase prices slightly. At the port, the market decline continued, with only sporadic transactions and strong price - bargaining. The port inventory was high, and the turnover rate was low, with the short - term decline expected to continue. The decline in the imported coal market narrowed, and the advantage of low - calorie coal became prominent [6] - Supply and Demand Logic: Recently, coal prices have been weak due to lower - than - expected downstream consumption and relatively high inventory. Some mines have completed their annual tasks, and future supply is difficult to improve significantly. In the long - term, attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, non - power coal consumption, and replenishment [6] - Strategy: No strategy provided [6]