申万期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal closed down. Brazilian soybean sowing rate is 94.1% as of Dec 13, 2025. US soybean exports are still slightly slow, and the USDA monthly supply - demand report provides no significant support. Domestic high - cost imports support prices, while sufficient future supply will pressure prices. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal will continue to fluctuate within a range [2]. - Oils and fats: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed oil was weak, while palm oil rose slightly. Malaysia's reduction of palm oil export tax rate and reference price boosts export expectations. However, the inventory pressure in the producing areas is still significant, and the inventory inflection point may appear in December. With Australian rapeseed arriving at ports and entering the pressing stage, the supply of rapeseed oil is expected to increase. It is expected that the oils and fats will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 7802, 8368, 8945, 2747, 2406, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were - 20, 26, - 5, - 9, 5, and 26, with percentage changes of - 0.26%, 0.31%, - 3.15%, - 0.33%, 0.21%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - Spreads and Ratios: The current spreads and ratios of various futures contracts have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil changed from - 342 to - 278 [1]. 3.2 International Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 3947 (Ringgit/ton), 1052 (cents/bushel), 49 (cents/pound), and 302 (dollars/ton) respectively. The price changes were - 53, - 7, - 1, and 0, with percentage changes of - 1.33%, - 0.66%, - 1.08%, and 0.10% respectively [1]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The current spot prices of various oils and meals have different percentage changes. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8290, with a percentage change of - 0.72% [1]. - Basis and Spreads: The current spot basis and spreads of various products have also changed compared to the previous values. For example, the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 488 [1]. 3.4 Import and Profit - The current import profits of various products such as Malaysian palm oil, US soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the import profit of Malaysian palm oil changed from - 547 to - 480 [1]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 26,264, 950, 4,006, 23,830, 0, and 0 respectively. The warehouse receipts of soybean oil and rapeseed oil have changed compared to the previous values [1]. 3.6 Industry Information - Indonesia's palm oil exports in October 2025 were 2.8 million tons, a year - on - year decline of about 3%. The production of crude palm oil in October was 4.35 million tons, and the inventory at the end of October was 2.33 million tons, lower than the previous month's 2.59 million tons [2]. - The estimated soybean production in Paraná, Brazil for the 2025/26 season is 21.96 million tons, the same as the November estimate [2].