工业硅：逢高做空为主，多晶硅：关注消息面的影响

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Short on rallies [1] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the impact of news [2] Report's Core View - The industry governance of the photovoltaic industry has entered a critical period. The Department of Electronic Information of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will further strengthen production - capacity regulation, promote the construction of a unified national market, manage photovoltaic manufacturing projects, and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity. It will also improve the price monitoring mechanism, crack down on illegal price - related and marketing behaviors, and strengthen product quality supervision [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: Si2605's closing price was 8,645 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 348,477 lots, and an open interest of 207,780 lots. PS2605's closing price was 59,300 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 398,819 lots, and an open interest of 139,860 lots [2] - Price and Spread: The spot premium of industrial silicon (against East China Si5530) was +555 yuan/ton. The near - month contract to the first continuous contract spread of polysilicon was 50.0 yuan/ton [2] - Profit: The profit of silicon plants (Xinjiang new standard 553) was - 2,681.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises was 8.1 yuan/kg [2] - Inventory: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) was 55.3 million tons, and polysilicon's manufacturer inventory was 29.3 million tons [2] - Raw Material Cost: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and the price of graphite electrodes was 12,450 yuan/ton [2] Macro and Industry News - At the 2025 Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference on December 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will strengthen production - capacity regulation, improve price monitoring, and crack down on illegal behaviors in the photovoltaic industry [4] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1; Polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [4]