贵金属：贵金属日报2025-12-19-20251219

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weak non - farm employment and inflation data in the US have boosted the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold, with the reference operating range of the main Shanghai gold contract being 940 - 1002 yuan/gram. For silver, due to the significant increase in the early stage during the Hassert nomination process, it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and pay attention to the risk of short - term sharp fluctuations. The reference operating range of the main Shanghai silver contract is 13918 - 16000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes Information - Shanghai gold rose 0.02% to 980.20 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.42% to 15228.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4363.90 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 65.45 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.12%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.44 [2] - The inflation data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday was significantly lower than expected, which boosted the market's pricing of the Fed's subsequent loose monetary policy and supported the prices of gold and silver. The year - on - year CPI in the US in November was 2.7%, significantly lower than the expected 3.1%, and the year - on - year core CPI was 2.6%, significantly lower than the expected 3%. The housing rent, which accounts for the highest proportion, showed a significant decline. The year - on - year CPI of out - of - home accommodation was - 4.1%, significantly lower than - 0.1% in September, which also caused the year - on - year CPI of housing to fall from 3.5% in September to 3%. The housing rent CPI accounts for 35% of the overall CPI, which is an important reason for the significant decline in this inflation data [2] - The US labor market showed weakness. The number of newly added non - farm employment in the US in November was 64,000, higher than the expected 50,000, but the newly added non - farm employment data in October recorded a decline of 105,000 [3] - With the weakening of both employment and inflation data in the US, the current CME interest rate observer shows that the market's probability expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 26.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by March is 46.8% [3] Key Data Summary of Gold and Silver - For gold, the closing price of the active COMEX contract decreased by 0.17% to 4363.90 US dollars/ounce; the trading volume increased by 11.14% to 228,600 lots; the position volume decreased by 3.34% to 418,500 lots; the inventory increased by 0.22% to 1122 tons. The closing price of LBMA gold increased by 0.41% to 4342.10 US dollars/ounce. The closing price of the active Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) contract increased by 0.08% to 980.50 yuan/gram; the trading volume decreased by 9.26% to 318,400 lots; the position volume increased by 1.15% to 349,800 lots; the inventory decreased by 0.01% to 91.72 tons; the settled funds increased by 1.23% to 54.873 billion yuan. The closing price of AuT + D increased by 0.18% to 974.68 yuan/gram; the trading volume decreased by 14.24% to 42.67 tons; the position volume increased by 0.92% to 219.11 tons [5] - For silver, the closing price of the active COMEX contract decreased by 1.49% to 65.45 US dollars/ounce; the position volume increased by 4.35% to 150,800 lots; the inventory increased by 0.05% to 14095 tons. The closing price of LBMA silver increased by 4.71% to 65.95 US dollars/ounce. The closing price of the active SHFE contract increased by 0.06% to 15,521.00 yuan/kilogram; the trading volume decreased by 4.76% to 2,736,200 lots; the position volume decreased by 1.94% to 783,300 lots; the inventory increased by 0.03% to 912.16 tons; the settled funds decreased by 1.88% to 32.824 billion yuan. The closing price of AgT + D increased by 0.05% to 15,463.00 yuan/kilogram; the trading volume decreased by 31.79% to 900.98 tons; the position volume decreased by 3.71% to 3622.722 tons [5] Price Difference Information - For gold, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was - 5.30 yuan/gram or - 23.40 US dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 1.02 yuan/gram or 4.50 US dollars/ounce [50] - For silver, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was 817.72 yuan/kilogram or 3.62 US dollars/ounce [50]