日度策略参考-20251219

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: BR Rubber [1] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Bonds, Agricultural Products, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium), Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Soybeans, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Benzene - Naphtha, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks [1] - The market sentiment is volatile, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels for some products [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - Stock Index: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period [1] - Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Aluminum: High - level wide - range oscillation due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating macro sentiment [1] - Alumina: Weak domestic fundamentals, short - term price rebound but limited upward drive [1] - Zinc: Fundamentals improved, cost center shifted up, but price is under pressure. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - Nickel: After a sharp decline, there is a demand for position - reduction repair. Short - term trading is recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1] - Stainless Steel: Short - term trading is recommended, waiting for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] - Tin: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: Supported by the cooling of the US CPI in November, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest, reduced production in the southwest, and decreased production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, marginal improvement in terminal installation in the fourth quarter, and strong price - holding and low - delivery willingness of large enterprises [1] - Lithium: In the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand, increased production on the supply side, and the potential to break through previous highs [1] Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Roll over and take profits on cash - and - carry positions. Valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - Iron Ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon: Prices are under pressure due to weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: Supply and demand provide support, valuation is low, but short - term price fluctuations are strong [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: After a decline, there are signs of stabilization. Pay attention to winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises this week [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Short - term short - selling is recommended due to continuous negative high - frequency data and high pressure on the origin [1] - Soybeans: Pay attention to the negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1] - Rapeseed Oil: It is recommended to short the 05 contract as the near - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be exhausted [1] - Cotton: The market is currently supported but lacks a driving force. Pay attention to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1] - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling, but there is strong cost support below. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1] - Wheat and Corn: The short - term decline is limited by farmers' price - holding sentiment and downstream stocking demand before the Spring Festival [1] - Pulp: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] - Logs: The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly as it approaches the delivery month [1] - Live Pigs: Production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Industry - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Affected by OPEC+ production - suspension, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1] - Bitumen: Follows crude oil in the short term, with high profit and possible falsification of the 14th - Five - Year Plan's rush - demand [1] - BR Rubber: Bullish due to improved cost - side support, increased sales, and high operating rates [1] - PTA and Short - Fiber: The PTA device operates at a high load, and short - fiber prices follow costs closely [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Prices decline due to inventory accumulation and weakening cost support [1] - Benzene - Naphtha: There is slight cost - side support, but overall production economy is negative, and inventory is high [1] - Urea, Propylene, PVC, and Caustic Soda: Prices oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost changes, and reduced anti - involution sentiment [1] - LPG: The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and prices oscillate after a decline. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1] Other - Container Shipping to Europe: The price increase in December was less than expected, and the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose [1]