黑色金属数据日报-20251219

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For steel, cost support strengthens, but the independent driving force for finished products is weak. The supply - demand structure is weak, and short - term long positions can be considered from a valuation perspective with stop - loss set [3]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, energy - related policies boost prices in the short term, but there is a medium - term supply surplus, and it is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon and short on silicomanganese [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the futures market rebounds rapidly. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and industrial customers can consider purchasing cost - effective spot [3]. - For iron ore, iron water production is falling, and prices are under pressure. However, prices may decline more slowly after the expected iron water stabilization and subsequent restocking [3]. Summary by Related Content Futures Market - On December 18, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2610, HC2610, J2605, and JM2609 were 3151.00 yuan/ton, 3288.00 yuan/ton, 1743.00 yuan/ton, and 1200.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 1.25%, 0.98%, 4.75%, and 5.68% [1]. - The closing prices of near - month contracts RB2605, HC2605, J2601, and JM2605 were 3125.00 yuan/ton, 3277.00 yuan/ton, 1603.50 yuan/ton, and 1126.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 1.40%, 1.05%, 5.39%, and 6.07% [1]. - The cross - month spreads of RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, J2601 - 2605, and JM2605 - 2609 were - 26.00 yuan/ton, - 11.00 yuan/ton, - 139.50 yuan/ton, and - 73.50 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The spread/ratio/profit indicators such as coil - to - rebar spread, rebar - to - ore ratio, coal - to - coke ratio, rebar paper profit, and coking paper profit on December 18 were 152.00, 4.02, 1.42, - 17.38, and 105.26 respectively [1]. Spot Market - On December 18, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, and Tangshan billet were 3320.00 yuan/ton, 3190.00 yuan/ton, 3520.00 yuan/ton, and 2950.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 30.00 yuan/ton, 20.00 yuan/ton, 40.00 yuan/ton, and 10.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil were 3300.00 yuan/ton, 3300.00 yuan/ton, and 3290.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 20.00 yuan/ton, 30.00 yuan/ton, and 10.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The spot prices of Qingdao Port super - special powder, Ganqimao coal, and Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke were 678.00 yuan/ton, 1120.00 yuan/ton, and 1530.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 9.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, and - 50.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The basis values of HC, RB, J, and JM on December 18 were 23.00 yuan/ton, 195.00 yuan/ton, 76.66 yuan/ton, and 23.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of - 12.00 yuan/ton, - 11.00 yuan/ton, - 126.76 yuan/ton, and - 64.50 yuan/ton [1].