光大期货能化商品日报-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various energy - chemical commodities are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, PVC, polyolefins, and methanol are all in an oscillatory state. The main influencing factors include geopolitical situations (such as the US - Venezuela relationship), supply - demand fundamentals, and cost factors [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Thursday, oil prices rebounded slightly. WTI January contract closed up $0.21 to $56.15 per barrel, a 0.38% increase; Brent February contract closed up $0.14 to $59.82 per barrel, a 0.23% increase; SC2602 closed at 428.6 yuan per barrel, up 0.3 yuan per barrel, a 0.07% increase. The US - Venezuela situation affects exports, and the market will be quiet during the New Year holidays, with oil prices oscillating driven by news [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Thursday, the main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil rose. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased. The market is under pressure due to sufficient supply, but high - sulfur fuel oil cracking profit decline may boost demand. Short - term prices may oscillate with oil prices [3]. - Asphalt: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract rose. Market concerns about raw material shortages in the long - term have increased, but current refinery raw materials are sufficient. Domestic demand shows a north - south divide, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term or be dragged down by oil prices [3]. - Polyester: TA605 and PX futures rose, and EG2605 also rose slightly. The start - up load of ethylene glycol increased. Prices follow the cost of crude oil, and ethylene glycol prices rebounded slightly due to factors such as coal price rebound and increased domestic maintenance [5]. - Rubber: On Thursday, the prices of various rubber futures fell. China's rubber tire exports increased in the first 11 months of 2025, but the output in November decreased. Overseas raw material prices rebounded, and demand support is limited, with prices expected to oscillate widely [5][7]. - PVC: On Thursday, PVC market prices in East, North, and South China adjusted. Supply is expected to increase slightly, domestic demand will slow down, and prices tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. - Polyolefins: On Thursday, polyolefin prices were under pressure, and production margins were negative. Supply will remain high, demand will weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [9]. - Methanol: On Thursday, methanol prices were stable. Domestic supply is in high - level oscillation, overseas supply from Iran may decline, demand will weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [9][10]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical varieties on December 19, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump claimed that Venezuela took "American" oil and land, and overseas institutions said that blocking oil tankers put 600,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan oil exports at risk. - According to JODI data, global oil demand increased significantly in October compared with September and the same period last year, mainly driven by the rebound in Indian demand [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: It shows the historical closing prices of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17][18][21][23][26][28][30]. - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: It presents the historical basis of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [34][35][36][39][40][42][45][46]. - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: It shows the historical spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [50][52][55][58][60][62][64]. - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: It presents the historical spreads between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, PP - LLDPE spreads, etc. [66][68][78]. - 4.5 Production Profits: It shows the historical production profits of LLDPE and PP [75]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy - Chemical Research Team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, and their professional backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [80][81][82][83].