光大期货金融期货日报-20251219

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "volatile" [1] - The rating for treasury bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] Core View of the Report - The stock index futures market has been oscillating around the lower edge of the central range since October, with limited differentiation between large - and small - cap indexes and frequent sector rotations. The impact of policies on the market is expected to increase in the short term. The important meetings have a long - term positive impact on the stock index, but it will remain volatile in the short term. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and restart of the balance - sheet expansion plan, along with the upcoming Bank of Japan's interest - rate meeting, may affect the market. [1] - Treasury bond futures closed with some contracts rising. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net capital injection. The central economic work conference has set the tone for a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, but interest - rate cuts will be cautious. In the short term, the bond market's oscillating pattern is difficult to change. [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research View - Stock Index Futures: On Thursday, the market was oscillating and differentiated, with the ChiNext Index falling by more than 2%. About 2900 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets rose, and the trading volume was 1.67 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.17%. The GDP growth target of 5% in 2026 is expected to remain unchanged. Policy efforts will focus on "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting the rapid development of new - quality productivity". Fiscal and monetary policies will continue to work together, perhaps with a slightly larger scale than this year. Overseas, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp and restarted the balance - sheet expansion plan, but there are differences in the 2026 interest - rate cut expectations, and the US technology stocks oscillated. The Bank of Japan will hold an interest - rate meeting soon. [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: The 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts of treasury bond futures rose by 0.23%, 0.02%, and 0.01% respectively, while the 10 - year main contract remained stable. The central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of 14 - day and 88.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations on December 18, with 118.6 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase maturing, resulting in a net capital injection of 6.97 billion yuan. The DR001 and DR007 decreased. The monetary policy in 2026 will be moderately loose overall, but interest - rate cuts will be cautious. [1][2] Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: The IH rose 7.8 points (0.26%), IF fell 27.8 points (- 0.61%), IC fell 173.2 points (- 2.42%), and IM fell 19.6 points (- 0.27%) [3] - Stock Indexes: The Shanghai 50 Index rose 6.8 points (0.23%), the CSI 300 Index fell 27.1 points (- 0.59%), the CSI 500 Index fell 37.0 points (- 0.52%), and the CSI 1000 Index fell 16.3 points (- 0.22%) [3] - Treasury Bond Futures: TS rose 0.008 (0.01%), TF rose 0.01 (0.01%), T remained unchanged (0.00%), and TL rose 0.11 (0.10%) [3] Market News - Overall Trend: The market was oscillating and differentiated throughout the day. The ChiNext Index fell by more than 2%, about 2900 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets rose, and the trading volume was 1.67 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.17% [5] - Industry Sectors: AI healthcare, commercial spaceflight, retail, and IP economy sectors led the gains, while battery, lithium mine, Hainan, and PCB sectors led the losses [5] - Popular Concepts: AI healthcare concept stocks strengthened, with some stocks like Huaren Health and Saili Medical hitting the daily limit. Commercial spaceflight stocks soared, with companies such as Shengyang Technology and Tianjian Technology hitting the daily limit. Retail and IP economy consumer stocks rose, with Baida Group having six consecutive daily limits and Shanghai Jiubai hitting the daily limit. Some computing - power hardware stocks fell, with some stocks like Shengyi Technology and Jingwang Electronics falling by more than 5% [5] Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their corresponding basis trends [6][7][8][9][10][11] - Treasury Bond Futures: There are charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][17][19] - Exchange Rates: There are charts showing the central rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies [21][22][24][26][28][29]