有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 19 日）-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated narrowly and trended stronger, with the spot import of refined copper in China remaining at a loss. The inflation data strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed turning dovish, and the expectation of continued interest - rate cuts in 2026 was reinforced. With the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, there are certain macro - level disturbances. Although copper has digested this factor to some extent, short - term caution is advised, but a prudent and optimistic attitude can be maintained [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The alumina still has downward pressure, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to run at a high level as the de - stocking process is expected to be prolonged [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices rose. The news boosted nickel prices, but the actual implementation situation needs to be monitored. In the traditional industry chain, the price of nickel - iron was stable, and the trading atmosphere in the stainless - steel spot market improved. In the new - energy industry chain, the price was dragged down by the decline in nickel prices and weakening demand [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: US inflation data in November showed a further easing of inflation pressure, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed turning dovish. LME copper inventory decreased by 2650 tons to 164275 tons, COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 2339 tons to 416914 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 227 tons to 44650 tons, and BC copper decreased by 5127 tons to 1053 tons [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, AO2601 closed at 2545 yuan/ton, down 1.05%, with a position reduction of 4503 lots to 166,000 lots. AL2602 closed at 22030 yuan/ton, up 0.18%, with a position increase of 3445 lots to 299,000 lots. AD2602 closed at 21130 yuan/ton, up 0.05%, with a position reduction of 14 lots to 17176 lots. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2778 yuan/ton, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened to 140 yuan/ton [1]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.84% to 14630 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 1.56% to 115350 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 60 tons to 253938 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 748 tons to 37513 tons. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the planned nickel ore production in 2026 might be about 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 2025 target [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On December 17, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 92115 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan from the previous day. The LME registered + cancelled inventory was 166925 tons, up 325 tons from the previous day. The total domestic + bonded area social inventory was 23.9 million tons, up 0.1 million tons from the previous day [4]. - Lead: On December 17, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16840 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 265575 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 2508 tons to 32227 tons [4]. - Aluminum: On December 17, 2025, the Wuxi quotation was 21740 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan from the previous day. The total SHFE inventory decreased by 3635 tons to 119995 tons, and the electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 1.2 million tons to 59.6 million tons [5]. - Nickel: On December 17, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 118350 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan from the previous day. The LME registered + cancelled inventory was 253998 tons, up 690 tons from the previous day. The total social inventory of nickel (SHFE + Nanchu + hidden) was 58970 tons, up 2122 tons from the previous day [5]. - Zinc: On December 17, 2025, the main settlement price was 22910 yuan/ton, down 1.0% from the previous day. The LME S3 price was 2505.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The social inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 12.58 million tons [7]. - Tin: On December 17, 2025, the main settlement price was 325010 yuan/ton, up 0.6% from the previous day. The LME S3 price was 27540 US dollars/ton, down 2.1% from the previous day. The SHFE inventory increased by 526 tons to 7391 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts for analysis, including spot premiums and discounts, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [8][15][22][29][35][42]