Metal Futures Daily Strategy：有色金属月度策略-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but with increased volatility. After the digestion of macro - negative sentiments and supported by fundamentals, most non - ferrous metals have shown a recovery. However, there are still differences in strength among different varieties. Attention should be paid to the continuation of the resonance between fundamentals and macro - drivers [11][12]. - The market is currently affected by multiple factors such as the US interest - rate cut expectations, potential Japanese interest - rate hikes, fluctuations in technology stocks, and changes in economic data in China and the US. The performance of each non - ferrous metal variety is affected by both macro - environment and its own fundamentals [11][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - Macro Logic: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. After the digestion of negative factors and with the support of fundamentals, the sector is recovering. There are differences in performance among different varieties. Key factors include the US interest - rate cut expectations, potential Japanese interest - rate hikes, and fluctuations in technology stocks [11]. - Economic Data: In China, from January to November, real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, and new commercial housing sales area decreased by 7.8% year - on - year. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods dropped to 1.3%. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year. In the US, the unemployment rate in November rose to a four - year high, and the retail sales in October were generally flat [11]. - Investment Recommendations: | Variety | Operation Logic | Support Area | Pressure Area | Market Judgment | Strategy | Recommendation Intensity | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | Affected by factors such as US employment data and market sentiment, with improved downstream acceptance of high prices and a structural contradiction in global copper inventory, the copper price is expected to rise. | 90000 - 91000 | 94500 - 95000 | Oscillating upward | Buy on dips | +1 | | Zinc | With a good short - term fundamental situation and affected by factors such as supply reduction and demand changes, the market is oscillating. | 22800 - 23000 | 23500 - 23800 | Oscillating consolidation | Wait - and - see | +0.5 | | Aluminum Industry Chain | The aluminum market is in an oscillating adjustment phase, with an oversupply situation in alumina and a complex situation in the aluminum downstream. | 21000 - 21300; 2000 - 2200; 20000 - 20400 | 23000 - 24000; 2800 - 3000; 21500 - 21800 | Aluminum oscillating adjustment; Alumina oscillating at the bottom; Cast aluminum alloy oscillating adjustment | Wait - and - see or buy on dips; Sell on rallies; Wait - and - see or buy on dips | +0.5/-0.5/+0.5 | | Tin | Affected by supply and demand factors such as smelter production and consumption, the market is oscillating. | 290000 - 300000 | 335000 - 340000 | Oscillating consolidation | Wait - and - see for the time being | - 0.5 | | Lead | Affected by factors such as smelter production and demand changes in lead - acid battery enterprises, the price is oscillating weakly. | 16500 - 16600 | 17200 - 17300 | Oscillating weakly | Double - selling strategy | - 0.5 | | Nickel | Affected by factors such as potential RKAB quota reduction in Indonesia and supply - demand changes, the price is rebounding. | 110000 - 112000 | 120000 - 122000 | Rebound | Short - term rebound | +1 | | Stainless Steel | In a period of weak supply and demand, with reduced production in December and weak demand. | 12200 - 12300 | 12700 - 12800 | Repeated at low levels | Wait - and - see for the time being | +0.5 | [13][14][15][16] 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price change rates of various non - ferrous metals are presented in a table. For example, copper closed at 92600 with a - 0.24% change, and zinc closed at 23030 with a 0.26% change [17]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector includes information on the price change rate, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base value, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties such as Shanghai silver, Shanghai tin, and industrial silicon [19]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price change rates of various non - ferrous metals are presented in a table. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 92430 yuan/ton with a 0.10% change, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price is 23140 yuan/ton with a 0.52% change [20][21][22]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Relevant data charts of various non - ferrous metals industry chains are presented, including copper inventory changes, zinc inventory changes, and aluminum inventory and price trends [25][28][31]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Relevant data charts for arbitrage analysis of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change and the zinc Shanghai - London ratio change [57][58]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Relevant data charts for option analysis of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the historical volatility of copper options and the weighted implied volatility of zinc options [75][77].