期货市场交易指引2025年12月19日-20251219

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; expect government bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - Black building materials: Short-term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; sell on rallies for glass [1][8][9] - Non-ferrous metals: Reduce positions on rallies for copper and replenish on low-level stabilization; strengthen observation for aluminum; observe or sell on rallies for nickel; range trading for tin, gold; hold long positions for silver and be cautious about new positions; expect lithium carbonate to trade with a strong bias [1][11][12][18][19] - Energy and chemicals: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol; expect polyolefins to trade with a weak bias; temporarily observe caustic soda and soda ash [1][21][22][23][25][26][28] - Cotton textile industry chain: Bullish with a bias for cotton and cotton yarn; expect PTA to rise in a range; bearish with a bias for apples and jujubes [1][30][31][32] - Agricultural and livestock products: Short-term short-selling on rallies for near-term contracts of live pigs and cautious bullishness for far-term contracts; expect eggs to trade in a range; be cautious about chasing highs in the short term for corn and hedge on rallies for grain holders; range trading for soybean meal, with a bullish bias for near-term contracts and a bearish bias for far-term contracts; be cautious about short-selling for oils and fats [1][34][35][36][37] Core Views - The report provides trading strategies for various futures products in different industries, considering factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and policy impacts. It emphasizes the importance of risk management and the need for investors to make decisions based on their own investment goals and risk tolerance [1][5][8][9][11][12][18][19][21][22][23][25][26][28][30][31][32][34][35][36][37] Summary by Industry Macro-finance - Stock indices are expected to trade in a range in the short term but are bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips, as US inflation has slowed more than expected [5] - Government bonds are expected to trade in a range, with short - term rates potentially stabilizing if long - term yields do not reach new highs and funding rates remain stable [5] Black building materials - Coking coal market is in a tug - of - war between strong bearish factors and weak bullish factors, with short - term trading recommended [8] - Rebar is expected to trade in a range, with low valuation and weak driving forces, and a weak downward trend [9] - Glass is expected to trade weakly, with a strategy of selling on rallies due to high inventory, weak demand, and potential supply increases [9][10] Non-ferrous metals - Copper is expected to trade in a high - level range, with a strategy of reducing positions on rallies and replenishing on low - level stabilization, due to short - term overheating and potential technical adjustments [11] - Aluminum is expected to rebound, but investors are advised to strengthen observation due to factors such as changes in ore prices, production capacity, and demand [12] - Nickel is expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of observing or selling on rallies, as the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to be in surplus [16] - Tin is expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of range trading, considering factors such as supply tightness and potential demand recovery [17][18] - Silver and gold are expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of holding long positions for silver and range trading for gold, as the medium - term price centers are expected to rise [18] - Lithium carbonate is expected to trade with a strong bias, with attention paid to supply disruptions and demand trends [19] Energy and chemicals - PVC is expected to trade in a low - level range, with weak fundamentals but potential support from low valuation and policy or cost changes [19][21] - Caustic soda is expected to trade in a low - level range, with investors advised to temporarily observe due to high inventory and potential impacts from alumina production [21] - Styrene is expected to trade in a range, with a focus on changes in pure benzene prices and crude oil pricing [22][23] - Rubber is expected to trade in a wide - range, with support from supply disruptions but limited upside due to high inventory and weak demand [23][24] - Urea is expected to trade in a range, with a relatively stable supply - demand pattern [24][25] - Methanol is expected to trade in a range, with supply recovery, high - level but slightly declining downstream demand, and inventory reduction [26] - Polyolefins are expected to trade with a weak bias, with a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [26][27] - Soda ash investors are advised to temporarily observe, as the supply - demand contradiction may be alleviated after supply contraction and there is cost support [28] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade with a strong bias, as recent domestic cotton sales are fast and yarn prices are firm [30] - PTA is expected to rise in a range, driven by rising crude oil prices and supply - demand inventory reduction [30][31] - Apples and jujubes are expected to trade with a weak bias, with slow inventory sales [31][32] Agricultural and livestock products - Live pigs are expected to form a bottom in a range, with short - term supply pressure and long - term potential for price recovery after capacity reduction [32][34] - Eggs are expected to trade in a range, with short - term stability, medium - term improvement in supply - demand balance, and long - term supply pressure [34][35][36] - Corn is expected to trade with a weak bias, with short - term selling pressure and long - term support from demand recovery but limited upside [36] - Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range, with a bullish bias for near - term contracts and a bearish bias for far - term contracts [37] - Oils and fats are expected to have intensified corrections, and investors are advised to be cautious about short - selling [37][38][39][40][41][42]