供需双增，02合约等待进一步价格指引

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract delivery settlement price is gradually becoming clear, with a preliminary estimate between 1600 - 1700 points, and attention should be paid to the actual SCFIS announcement. The EC2602 contract is focusing on the shipping companies' willingness to support prices under high - capacity conditions, and the valuation center is constantly rising. The far - month contracts are facing the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, with the risk of valuation downward revision [4][5][6]. - The strategy suggests that the 12 - month contract will fluctuate, and the February contract will fluctuate strongly. There is no arbitrage strategy for now [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Futures Prices - As of December 18, 2025, the total position of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 60,961.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 31,539.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1668.60, 1108.80, 1270.50, 1441.30, 1042.20, and 1624.40 respectively [7]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotes from various shipping companies show price changes. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quote in the first week of January is 1570/2520, and HPL's price in the second half of December is 1535/2535, with the quote in the first half of January being 2135/3535 [1]. - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on December 12 is 1538 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 1780 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 2652 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on December 15 is 1510.56 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 924.36 points [7]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the average weekly capacity for the remaining 3 weeks is 326,000 TEU, with capacities of 386,400, 290,900, and 300,700 TEU in weeks 51, 52, and 53 respectively. In January, the average weekly capacity is 322,700 TEU, and in February, it is 276,700 TEU. There are 4 TBNs in January (all from the OA alliance) and 9 TBNs and 2 blank sailings (both from the OA alliance) in February [3]. - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of now, 250 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU. As of December 23, 2025, 75 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.1315 million TEU, and 12 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [7]. 3.4 Supply Chain - The mediation plan for the Gaza cease - fire is advancing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming navigation in 2026 is high. If it resumes, it means an increase in effective capacity supply and the risk of further depressing freight rates. Currently, CMA's FAL1 route (Europe - Asia) has fully resumed operation since January 2026, and the FAL3 route has started a single trial run [6]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - There is no direct content in the text about demand and European economy, but the overall shipping market is affected by factors such as the Suez Canal situation, shipping company price - support strategies, and freight volume recovery, which indirectly reflect the relationship between supply and demand and economic conditions [4][5][6].