美国通胀风险降温，继续强化货币宽松预期

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio on dips [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The cooling inflation risk in the US strengthens the expectation of monetary easing. The market risk sentiment has increased, and the expectation of loose future monetary policy may slightly boost the demand for gold investment. Gold prices are expected to be in a slightly bullish oscillation pattern, while silver prices are expected to remain in a short - term oscillation pattern [1][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Inflation: In November, the US core CPI rose 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest since early 2021, lower than the expected 3%. The overall CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%. However, the reliability of this inflation report is questioned due to data collection interference [1]. - Fed: US President Trump said the nominee for the next Fed chair will be announced soon, and the candidate supports "substantial" interest rate cuts [1]. - Employment: Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 13,000 to 224,000, slightly lower than expected. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week increased by 67,000 to 1.897 million, lower than the expected 1.93 million [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On December 18, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 977.00 yuan/gram and closed at 980.50 yuan/gram, a 0.08% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 980.20 yuan/gram, a 0.03% decline from the afternoon close [2]. - On December 18, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 15,447.00 yuan/kg and closed at 15,521.00 yuan/kg, a 0.06% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,571,738 lots, and the open interest was 363,402 lots. The night session closed at 15,228 yuan/kg, an 1.89% decline from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 18, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.12%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.66%, a +2.5 BP change from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On December 18, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 522 lots, and the short positions decreased by 879 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 318,388 lots, a 9.26% decrease from the previous trading day [4]. - In the Ag2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 16,620 lots, and the short positions decreased by 14,086 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 2,736,170 lots, a 4.76% decrease from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,052.54 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,018 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 18, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 9.56 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1,308.48 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 63.17, a 0.02% change from the previous trading day, and the foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 65.43, a 3.64% decline from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On December 18, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 42,672 kg, a 14.24% decrease from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 900,984 kg, a 31.79% decrease from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 89,940 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: Due to the increasing market risk sentiment and the expected loose monetary policy, gold investment demand may increase slightly. The Au2602 contract is expected to oscillate between 960 yuan/gram and 990 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The silver price has slightly declined and may face profit - taking pressure after reaching a new high. Benefiting from the easing expectation, the Ag2602 contract is expected to oscillate between 14,800 yuan/kg and 15,800 yuan/kg [8].