俄罗斯12月燃料油发货量回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, neutral - bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, neutral - bearish [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil price has shown signs of stabilizing in the past two days after continuous decline, but the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed. The progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks may negatively affect oil prices, and the crude oil end will continue to suppress the unilateral prices of FU and LU. The current fundamentals of the fuel oil market have both long and short factors with limited overall contradictions [2]. - The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil are average, but the crack spread has shown signs of stabilizing after a significant correction. In addition to the support from refinery demand, Russia's exports declined again in December. The estimated shipment volume of high - sulfur fuel oil in Russia in December is 1.72 million tons, a decrease of 680,000 tons compared with the previous month. The supply of Russian refineries has been continuously disrupted by drone attacks in Ukraine [2]. - The overall driving force of the low - sulfur fuel oil market is limited. Due to the dynamic changes of the devices, there is room for local supply to increase. However, the shipment volumes of Kuwait and Nigeria in December have not increased significantly for the time being, and the bunker fuel terminal demand has been boosted at the end of the year. The bunker fuel sales volume in Singapore increased by 8% month - on - month in November. Coupled with the diversion of components by gasoline and diesel, the market pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is currently limited [2]. 3. Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 2.01% at 2,429 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.59% at 2,931 yuan/ton [1] 4. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, neutral - bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, neutral - bearish [3] - Cross - variety: No strategy [3] - Cross - period: No strategy [3] - Spot - futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3]