下游刚需采购，市场观望情绪严重

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bearish [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate meeting, most non - ferrous metals rose, but some are expected to fall after delivery [4] - The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the downstream restocking period before the Spring Festival is still early [4] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On December 19, 2024, the LME lead spot premium was -$31.73/ton [1] - The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] - SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -50 yuan/ton to 50.00 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong lead spot price was unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton; SMM Henan lead spot price changed by -75 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton; SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton [1] - The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells all decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, 9,525 yuan/ton, and 9,975 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On December 19, 2024, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,795 yuan/ton, closed at 16,730 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - The trading volume was 28,827 lots, a decrease of 11,102 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 43,709 lots, a decrease of 3,629 lots from the previous day [2] - During the day, the price fluctuated, with a high of 16,810 yuan/ton and a low of 16,660 yuan/ton [2] - In the night session, the main contract opened at 16,800 yuan/ton, closed at 16,795 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On December 19, 2024, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the same period last week [3] - As of December 18, the LME lead inventory was 234,700 tons, unchanged from the previous day [3] Strategy - Current operations should focus on selling hedges at high prices, with the selling range between 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton [4]