煤焦：铁水产量继续下滑，盘面反弹仍有压力

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pessimistic sentiment after the rapid decline of the previous disk has been released. Coupled with the cooperation of positive news in the market, the price has staged a phased rebound. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and the price lacks the driving force for continuous upward movement [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Performance - Recently, affected by the warming of market sentiment, the prices of coal and coke futures have risen abnormally, with the trading volume expanding, but the increase in positions is not significant. The price rebound may be more due to the gradual realization of profits by previous short positions [2] Supply Side - In the short - term, the fundamentals have not changed much. This week, individual coal mines in the main producing areas have resumed production after face - changing and increased production to catch up with the annual production capacity target, resulting in a slight increase in output. However, it is currently the high - incidence period of year - end maintenance for coal mines, so the short - term increase in output may be limited. The import of coking coal remains at a high level, continuing to suppress domestic coal prices. Last week, the average daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 188,000 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 84,000 tons year - on - year [2] Demand Side - The pressure of the seasonal off - season will become more prominent. The profitability rate of steel mills is about 35%. The blast furnace hot metal output is still in a slow decline trend, dropping to 2.2655 million tons this week, a decrease of 26,500 tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 28,600 tons year - on - year, continuously suppressing the rigid demand for raw materials [2] Future Focus - Pay attention to the change in the restocking rhythm of steel mills for raw materials after the decline in coal and coke prices, as well as the changes in the blast furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of production of coal mines [2][3]