华宝期货碳酸锂晨报-20251219

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The finished products are expected to move downward with a weak trend and operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, while lithium carbonate is expected to stabilize in a range-bound manner, and attention should be paid to marginal changes in supply and demand [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Content Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of total output. Six Anhui short - process steel mills will have one stop on January 5th and most around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [2] - The finished products continued to decline and hit a new low. In the weak supply - demand situation, the price center moved down due to pessimistic market sentiment. This year's winter storage is sluggish and provides weak price support. The outlook is for volatile consolidation [1][2] Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium carbonate contract closed at 106,160 yuan/ton, with slightly reduced trading volume, slightly increased positions, and a continued net - short position of the main force. The average price of electric carbon was 97,750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 8,410 yuan/ton. Market transactions rely on a small number of enterprises' rigid - demand purchases, with few actual deals [1] - As of December 18, the weekly production rate of lithium carbonate was 51.4%, a 0.21% MoM increase, and the output was 22,045 tons, a 0.21% MoM increase. The spodumene process was the core growth factor. The 10,000 - ton/year spodumene production line of Jiangxi Qiangyu New Energy was ignited on December 18 [2] - As of December 18, affected by weakening demand from battery cell manufacturers and maintenance of some lithium iron phosphate plants, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.2% MoM. The inventories of ternary and lithium iron phosphate continued to decline [2] - In November, the production of new - energy vehicles and automotive lithium - ion batteries increased YoY. As of December 7, the sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly YoY and the penetration rate increased MoM, showing short - term adjustment but long - term resilience [2] - As of December 18, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.9% MoM to 110,400 tons, continuing the destocking trend with a slower slope. The total inventory days decreased by 1.1% MoM to 26.2 days. Although there was inventory accumulation in other links, the overall inventory was still tight, supporting prices [2] - The Fed's interest - rate cuts, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and the arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference are positive for the long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate. The market sentiment is affected by the tight supply - demand balance, overseas resource/restart news, and domestic lithium mine capacity dynamics, leading to continued capital games [3]