CPC3号SPM恢复推迟，支撑布伦特价差结构

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for oil prices is volatile and weak, and the medium - term strategy is to take a short position [3] Core Viewpoints - Although oil prices have declined recently, the Brent spread structure remains strong, with the CFD front end still in contango. The main driver is the delayed restart of CPC 3 SPM, which has reduced CPC crude oil exports to below 1 million barrels per day. The restart date has been postponed multiple times, and market confidence in its recovery has decreased. It is currently expected to resume operation in the second half of this month. Two SPMs need to be in operation for CPC crude oil exports to exceed 1.5 million barrels per day [2] Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for January 2026 delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 21 cents, closing at $56.15 per barrel, a 0.38% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for February delivery rose 14 cents, closing at $59.82 per barrel, a 0.23% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 0.07% at 429 yuan per barrel [1] - Chevron is preparing to export 1 million barrels of crude oil from Venezuela. Chevron's vessels are not subject to U.S. sanctions and are expected to sail smoothly. More Venezuelan crude oil will be shipped to the U.S. in January, and Chevron has sold at least 10 cargoes [1] - Due to multiple challenges such as oil sanctions, regional tensions, and rising inflation, the Iranian rial has depreciated to a record low against the U.S. dollar. On Wednesday evening, the U.S. dollar to rial exchange rate was slightly below 1.3 million in the unofficial open market in Tehran [1] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased to 7.1 million barrels per day in October, up from 6.46 million barrels per day in September [1] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will be volatile and weak. Medium - term: Take a short position in oil [3]