郑糖跌跌不休，棉价延续震荡

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral to bearish [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - Cotton: The 25/26 global cotton production and demand both decrease, and the ending stocks increase slightly. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, while in the long - term, it has limited downward space. In China, the supply is abundant in the short - term, but the downstream demand is weak. However, the improvement in spinning profits restricts the downward space of cotton prices [2]. - Sugar: The 25/26 global sugar supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. Although the short - term factors support the rebound of raw sugar prices, the upside space is limited. Zhengzhou sugar has sufficient short - term supply, but its low valuation restricts the further decline [5]. - Pulp: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. European port pulp inventory has decreased, but the domestic terminal demand is still insufficient. However, the decline in port inventory and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp prices to stabilize gradually [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 13,960 yuan/ton yesterday, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.25%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,978 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the national average price was 15,139 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. - Import: In November 2025, China's cotton imports were 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons (34.4%) and a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons (9.4%). From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64.0% [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA's adjustment of global cotton supply - demand data this month is small. The US cotton production increases slightly, and there is greater inventory pressure. The short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the long - term upward driver is not clear. - Domestic: China's cotton production in the 25/26 season continues to increase. The short - term supply is abundant, but the downstream demand is weak. The improvement in spinning profits restricts the downward space of cotton prices [2]. Strategy Be neutral to bullish, focus on the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract at low prices. Pay attention to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,102 yuan/ton yesterday, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.72%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,220 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. - Import: In November 2025, China's sugar imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. As of the end of November in the 25/26 season, the imports were 1.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons [4]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's sugarcane harvest is accelerating, India's exports are difficult to increase in the short - term, and Thailand's sugarcane crushing is delayed. Although the short - term raw sugar price rebounds, the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus pattern restricts its upside space. - Zhengzhou sugar: Guangxi sugar mills are starting production, with short - term sufficient supply. However, the low valuation restricts its downward space [5]. Strategy Be neutral to bearish. Pay attention to the impact of capital on the market, and treat it with a low - level consolidation mindset [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,500 yuan/ton yesterday, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,095 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total inventory of pulp in 1 region and 8 ports decreased by 1.39% week - on - week, and the decline narrowed by 3.50 percentage points [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news, such as Domtar closing the Crofton paper mill and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill having a temporary shutdown. - Demand: The European port pulp inventory in October decreased, showing some improvement in demand. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, but the decline in port inventory and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp prices to stabilize [7]. Strategy Be neutral. Although the pulp price has risen strongly recently, the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand situation restricts its upside space. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the market [8]