液化石油气日报：外盘价格回调，盘面区间震荡运行-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term recommendation of holding off on trading [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The external LPG price declined, and the futures market fluctuated within a range. The mainstream transaction price of civil LPG in Shandong decreased, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, and factory shipments improved. The price of ether - post carbon four in Shandong rose, driven by rising crude oil prices and individual low - price sales halts. Overall, the medium - term LPG supply - demand pattern remains in a state of oversupply, with insufficient market drivers, and warranting caution due to potential disruptions from warrant trading [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On December 18, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4300 - 4410 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4190 - 4300 yuan/ton; North China market, 4300 - 4350 yuan/ton; East China market, 4320 - 4405 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4550 - 4960 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4080 - 4380 yuan/ton; South China market, 4440 - 4580 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of January 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 591 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton), and butane was 581 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton). In RMB terms, propane was 4592 yuan/ton (a decrease of 70 yuan/ton), and butane was 4515 yuan/ton (a decrease of 69 yuan/ton). In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 584 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton), and butane was 574 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton). In RMB terms, propane was 4538 yuan/ton (a decrease of 77 yuan/ton), and butane was 4460 yuan/ton (a decrease of 77 yuan/ton) [1] - Although there has been a short - term tightening in the international market, the medium - term supply - demand pattern of LPG has not reversed. Supply from the Middle East and North America will continue to grow, while downstream chemical demand lacks growth momentum due to profit constraints, and the market will remain oversupplied [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Inter - period: No strategy provided [2] - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [2] - Futures - spot: No strategy provided [2] - Options: No strategy provided [2]