玻璃：供需双减成本筑底；纯碱：轻重分化出清延续：2026年玻璃纯碱年度报告

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For glass in 2026, it is expected that both supply and demand will decline. The demand decline rate is expected to narrow, and the industry profit pressure caused by the real - estate chain's capital problem remains to be resolved. Attention should be paid to the valuation elasticity brought by the supply side, and the cost line supports the price. The FG05 contract valuation refers to [1000, 1280] and is adjusted dynamically according to the cost [5][64]. - For soda ash in 2026, it is expected that supply will decrease and demand will increase, and the fundamentals will be marginally repaired. However, the digestion of the high - inventory contradiction still faces challenges. The differentiation between light and heavy soda ash may continue, and the price may be under pressure throughout the year, with a possible phased improvement during the maintenance season [6][121]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Glass 2026 Annual Report 3.1.1 Glass 2025 Review: Industry Clearance Game under Weak Demand - In 2025, weak demand was the fundamental contradiction in the glass industry. The over - supply pattern and high upstream and mid - stream inventory pressures led to the spot price fluctuating around the cost. Throughout the year, the price showed a downward - rebound - downward trend, and the inventory transfer from upstream to mid - stream was an important driver for the price increase [14][15]. 3.1.2 Glass 2026 Outlook - Demand: The decline in glass demand in 2026 is expected to narrow. Real - estate demand will continue to decline but at a slower pace. The growth rate of the automobile industry will slow down, and the output of home appliances may decline year - on - year. It is expected that the apparent demand for glass in 2026 will decline by 5% [21][26]. - Supply: The glass supply is expected to decline first and then increase in 2026. The overall supply is expected to be around 5515 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 4.5%. The industry may experience further clearance in the short term due to weak demand and high inventory, and the cost may rise in the long term due to energy transformation policies [54][60]. 3.1.3 Glass Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - In 2026, both supply and demand of float glass are expected to decline. More attention should be paid to the valuation elasticity brought by the supply side. The absolute price floor is around 950 yuan/ton, fluctuating with the cost. The FG05 contract valuation refers to [1000, 1280] and is adjusted according to the cost [64]. 3.2 Soda Ash 2026 Report 3.2.1 Soda Ash 2025 Price Review: The Decline of the Soda Ash Price Center Gradually Slowed - In the first half of 2025, the soda ash price declined due to over - supply and falling raw material costs. In the second half, the industry moved from over - supply to a wide - balance state, and the price stopped falling and rebounded. The inventory of the soda ash industry first increased and then decreased [72]. 3.2.2 Soda Ash 2026 Outlook - Supply: The soda ash industry is still in the capacity expansion cycle in 2026, but the production increase rhythm slows down. New production capacity at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 will increase the supply pressure, and the industry may continue to clear capacity. The valuation is expected to be repaired by supply - side adjustment, and the upper limit of the valuation should be concerned about the resumption of marginal production capacity [99][101]. - Light Soda Ash Demand: In 2025, the demand for light soda ash was strong. In 2026, it is expected that the traditional downstream will maintain a growth rate of 4.5 - 5.0%, and the demand from lithium carbonate and exports will continue to increase. The weekly average apparent demand for light soda ash is expected to be around 34 - 34.5 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 7% [106]. - Heavy Soda Ash Demand: In 2025, the supply and demand of photovoltaic glass both declined. In 2026, the global new photovoltaic installation growth rate is expected to slow down, and the rigid demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to fluctuate between 8.5 - 9.3 tons per day, and the annual production is expected to decline by about 1% to 3228 tons, corresponding to a rigid demand of 581 tons for heavy soda ash [111][113]. - Import and Export: In 2025, China's soda ash exports increased significantly, and imports decreased sharply. In 2026, it is expected that the large - scale export and closed import window pattern will continue, and the annual net export volume is expected to be between 240 - 260 tons [117][118]. 3.2.3 Soda Ash Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - In 2026, the supply of soda ash is expected to decrease and demand to increase, and the fundamentals will be marginally repaired. However, the high - inventory problem still needs to be resolved. The price may be under pressure throughout the year, with a possible phased improvement during the maintenance season. The spot price of soda ash may continue to be in the industry cost range, and attention should be paid to the lower and upper limits of the valuation and the seasonal supply decline during the maintenance season [121].