华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251219

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and the price of aluminum ingots is expected to operate at a high level in the short term [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival (from mid - January to around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month), affecting 741,000 tons of construction steel production [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel plants has stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, with daily output affected by about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished product price continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low recently, with a downward - moving price center due to weak supply - demand and pessimistic market sentiment, and the winter storage is sluggish this year [3] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level. In November, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than 3% in September, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January has slightly increased [2] - The new production capacity of domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum is steadily released, and the weekly output has increased. The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.5% [3] - The primary aluminum alloy industry's operating rate remained at 60%, the same as last week; the aluminum plate and strip operating rate was stable at 65.0% but under pressure; the aluminum cable operating rate decreased by 0.4% to 62%; the aluminum profile operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 51.6% [3] - On December 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 596,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last Thursday and 1,000 tons from last Monday [3]