首席点评：美国11月CPI爆冷

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, a table shows the possibility of a bullish or bearish trend for various commodities [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomic Outlook: The US November CPI data came in lower than expected, with the core CPI rising at the slowest pace since early 2021. This, along with the Fed's possible rate - cut in January, has influenced market sentiment. In China, the start of Hainan's full - island customs closure and policies in the PV industry are significant events [1][6][7]. - Market Sentiment: In the A - share market, a long - term bullish trend is expected due to policy support, capital inflow, and industrial development. Global capital flow and risk appetite may increase with the Fed's December rate cut. In the bond market, the loose monetary policy supports short - term treasury bond prices [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1.当日主要新闻关注 (Main News on the Day) - International News: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13 were 224,000, slightly lower than expected. The probability of a Fed rate cut in January rose from 26.6% to 28.8% [6]. - Domestic News: Hainan Free Trade Port officially launched the full - island customs closure, with a series of policies implemented. In the PV industry, relevant departments aim to curb cut - throat competition and promote healthy development [7]. 3.2.外盘每日收益情况 (Daily Returns of Overseas Markets) - The report presents the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market products on December 17 and 18, 2025, including the S&P 500, ICE Brent crude oil, and others [9]. 3.3.主要品种早盘评论 (Morning Comments on Major Commodities) - Financial Products - Stock Index Futures: With positive factors such as policy improvement, capital expansion, and industrial support, the A - share market's long - term bullish trend is expected to be consolidated. The Fed's rate cut in December may further boost market sentiment [10]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's open - market operations maintained a loose money supply. The slow growth of the US core CPI and the possible Fed rate cut influenced the bond market [11]. - Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports reached a two - and - a - half - year high in October. There are uncertainties regarding US sanctions on Russia's energy industry, and the overall downward trend remains [12]. - Methanol: The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased. Coastal methanol inventories declined, but imports are expected to increase. Short - term methanol prices are expected to be weak [13]. - Rubber: Overseas supply is increasing, while domestic supply is entering the off - season. Demand for all - steel tires is stable, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely [14]. - Polyolefins: Futures prices are consolidating. Downstream demand has reached a high level, and short - term attention should be paid to cost trends and supply - demand digestion [15]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Both glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. Glass inventory is decreasing faster, while soda ash needs more time. The real - estate industry's recovery in 2026 is a key factor [16]. - Metals - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices are volatile. The downward CPI trend provides room for rate cuts, and weak employment data supports further Fed rate cuts. The long - term upward trend remains [17]. - Copper: The concentrate supply is tight, and the smelting profit is at the break - even point. The global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit [18]. - Zinc: The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, and the smelting output continues to grow. The overall supply - demand difference is not significant, and market sentiment should be monitored [19]. - Aluminum: In the short - to - medium term, the supply is stable, and demand is acceptable. As the holidays approach, the impact of weakening demand on prices should be watched [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: Terminal demand is strong, but there is a risk of a seasonal decline. The short - term supply pressure is moderate, and the price may face a correction if the inventory reduction slows down [21][22]. - Black Metals - Coking Coal and Coke: The futures prices are oscillating. After a significant decline, the market is expected to stabilize with support from downstream restocking and winter demand [23]. - Steel: The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand. Short - term prices may rebound, but the medium - term outlook is weak [24]. - Iron Ore: The price is oscillating. Steel mills' profitability is declining, and they will maintain on - demand procurement. Short - term prices are expected to be slightly stronger [25]. - Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: Brazilian soybean sowing progress is behind schedule, and US soybean exports are slow. The domestic market is supported by high - cost imports, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [26]. - Oils and Fats: Palm oil prices are supported by export tax cuts, but inventory pressure remains. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to increase, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [27][28]. - Sugar: International sugar prices are expected to range - bound. Domestic supply is increasing seasonally, and the market is waiting for a recovery in sentiment [29]. - Cotton: Although there is a new cotton harvest, the sales progress is fast. The possible reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area and improved Sino - US relations support prices, but there is resistance at high levels [30]. - Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC 02 contract declined. Shipping companies are trying to raise prices, but the cargo - booking pressure will increase before the Spring Festival, and the 02 contract may face adjustment pressure [31].