航运衍生品数据日报-20251219

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The global shipping market is showing complex trends. The return of container ships to the Red Sea route is a significant development signal, but the actual impact on supply and demand is limited for now. The FEWB and TAWB routes are affected by factors such as ship - company capacity control, port congestion, and strong e - commerce demand, which support the freight rates at a high level during the Christmas and New Year period. In the EC market, the spot price is relatively stable, and the futures market is expected to move upward due to factors like the correction of previous extreme pessimistic expectations, coordinated price - holding by leading shipping companies, and improved supply - demand conditions [6][7][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - Spot Freight Index: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is at 1506, up 7.79% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1118, up 0.29%. SCFI - West US is at 1780, up 14.84%; SCFIS - West US is at 924, down 3.75%; SCFI - East US is at 2652, up 14.56%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is at 1538, up 9.86%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is at 1510, up 0.07%; SCFI - Mediterranean is at 2737, up 19.00% [5] - Futures Contract Price: Futures contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., show different degrees of decline. For example, EC2506 is at 1270.5, down 1.03% [5] - Contract Holdings: Holdings of different contracts also have changes. For instance, EC2606 holdings are 2272, a decrease of 34 from the previous value [5] - Monthly Spread: The 12 - 02 monthly spread is - 44.2, up 23.6 from the previous value; the 12 - 04 monthly spread is 515.6, up 7.7; the 02 - 04 monthly spread is 559.8, down 15.9 [5] 3.2 Market News and Impact - CMA CGM announced that its INDAMEX route will pass through the Suez Canal, indicating a significant step for container ships to return to the Red Sea route. The traffic volume through the Bab el Mandeb Strait has reached the highest level since January 2024 [6] - On the FEWB route, shipping companies strictly control capacity in December, with a low blank - sailing rate of 0.9%. European ports are congested, and strong e - commerce demand supports freight rates. On the TAWB route, ports in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean are severely congested due to labor disputes, and there is a shortage of containers and trailers in many European countries [6] 3.3 EC Market - Market Review: The market shows weak fluctuations. Maersk's quotes for the first week of December are 2500, and 2700 for the route to London, the same as at the beginning of December, after previously announcing an increase to 3500 [7] - Logic Analysis: On the spot side, the price has stabilized at 2400 US dollars. Leading shipping companies' coordinated price - holding actions have strengthened market confidence. In terms of supply and demand, European seasonal stocking drives up cargo volume, and the weekly average capacity on European routes shrinks in late December. The limited progress of Red Sea re - navigation has not increased supply negatively. These factors jointly drive the futures market to move upward [9] - Strategy: Try to short the 02 contract with a small position at high prices [10]