中辉能化观点-20251219

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously chase up [3] - Ethylene glycol: Stop profit on short positions [3] - Methanol: Cautiously go long with a light position [3] - Urea: Cautiously chase up [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Bearish rebound [6] - Glass: Bearish rebound [6] - Soda ash: Bearish rebound [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical uncertainty and oversupply are pulling the oil price, which is oscillating weakly. The cost - end oil price rebounds in the short - term but is under pressure in the long - term. The demand of various chemical products is weakening or has uncertain expectations, and the inventory situation varies, with some products facing high inventory pressure [1][9][15] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices oscillated weakly. WTI slightly rose by 0.23%, Brent decreased by 0.30%, and SC rose by 0.94% [8] - Basic Logic: The Russia - Ukraine geopolitics is developing towards relaxation, while the South American geopolitical uncertainty is rising. The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, with global and US crude oil and refined product inventories increasing [9] - Fundamentals: In October, Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased to 7.1 million barrels per day. The IEA expects global crude oil demand to increase by 830,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 860,000 barrels per day in 2026. As of the week of December 12, US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.274 million barrels, while gasoline, distillate, and strategic crude oil reserves increased [10] - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production and pressing down prices. The technical and short - cycle trends are weak. The strategy is to increase short positions. Pay attention to SC in the range of [420 - 435] [11] 3.2 LPG - Market Review: On December 17, the PG main contract closed at 4,212 yuan/ton, up 0.05% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,410 (-20) yuan/ton, 4,398 (-10) yuan/ton, and 4,490 (+30) yuan/ton respectively [14] - Basic Logic: The price is anchored to the cost - end crude oil. The oil price rebounds in the short - term but is downward in the long - term. The supply and demand side shows that refinery operations are rising, the commodity volume is recovering, and downstream chemical demand is resilient. The inventory of refineries and ports has decreased [15] - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to move down. The cost - end rebounds in the short - term but is under pressure in the long - term. The strategy is to hold short positions. Pay attention to PG in the range of [4050 - 4150] [16] 3.3 L - Market Review: L05 basis is - 96 yuan/ton, L15 is - 43 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts is 11,332 [19] - Basic Logic: Demand is weakening, and the sharp decline of North China's spot price has led to a significant weakening of the basis. The supply and demand are both weak. The parking ratio has slightly increased to 15%, and the LL weighted gross profit has been compressed to a low level. The supply is still sufficient. The peak season of shed film is ending, and the agricultural film operating rate is declining rapidly. The enterprise inventory has increased slightly, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory [20] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short - term, the price is at a low level, and some short positions can stop profit. In the long - term, it is in a high - production cycle. Wait for a rebound to go short. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread. Pay attention to L in the range of [6350 - 6500] [20] 3.4 PP - Market Review: PP05 basis is - 80 yuan/ton, PP15 spread is - 77 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts is 10,534 [22] - Basic Logic: Warehouse receipts continue to be cancelled, and high inventory restricts the rebound space. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices. In December, demand is entering the off - season, the parking ratio has dropped to 16%, and there are insufficient maintenance plans in the future. The PDH profit has been compressed to a low level, increasing the expectation of maintenance [23] - Strategy Recommendation: Reduce short positions; in the long - term, it is in a high - production cycle. Wait for a rebound to go short. Short the MTO05. Pay attention to PP in the range of [6200 - 6300] [23] 3.5 PVC - Market Review: V05 basis is - 280 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts is 113,074 [26] - Basic Logic: The operation rate and inventory have decreased slightly. The inventory of the upper - and middle - reaches is still at a high level, and the domestic and foreign demand is in the seasonal off - season. The contradiction of oversupply is difficult to ease, but the northwest self - supplied calcium carbide process devices are losing cash flow. Pay attention to the device dynamics [27] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short - term, partially stop profit on long positions; in the long - term, wait for continuous inventory reduction and try to go long on pullbacks. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices. Pay attention to V in the range of [4600 - 4800] [27] 3.6 PX/PTA - Market Review: TA05 price is 4,674 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China is 4,610 yuan/ton [28] - Basic Logic: The processing fee is relatively low. Domestic devices are under planned maintenance with a large intensity. Downstream demand is okay but the expectation is weakening. The cost - end support is weakening. The short - term supply and demand are tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January [29] - Strategy Recommendation: TA01 is under pressure but has support at the bottom. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on pullbacks for TA05. Pay attention to TA05 in the range of [4670 - 4850] [30] 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG05 price is 3,627 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China is 3,602 yuan/ton [31] - Basic Logic: The domestic and overseas device operating rates have decreased. Downstream demand is okay but the expectation is weakening. The inventory is expected to accumulate in December. The valuation is low, but there is no upward driver. It fluctuates in the short - term following the cost [32] - Strategy Recommendation: Stop profit on short positions; pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. Pay attention to EG05 in the range of [3725 - 3785] [33] 3.8 Methanol - Market Review: Taicang spot price is slightly stronger, and the port inventory has decreased month - on - month [36] - Basic Logic: The domestic methanol device operating rate has increased to a high level in the same period. Overseas devices have decreased their loads. The import volume in December is estimated to be about 1.3 million tons, and the supply pressure still exists. The demand has slightly weakened. The cost - end support is weakening [36] - Strategy Recommendation: Cautiously short, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on pullbacks. Pay attention to MA05 in the range of [2145 - 2185] [38] 3.9 Urea - Market Review: Shandong small - particle urea basis is 85 yuan/ton [39] - Basic Logic: The daily output of urea is as high as 199,000 tons. By mid - to late December, the supply pressure is expected to ease. The short - term demand is relatively good but lacks sustainability. The factory inventory has decreased but is still at a high level in the same period. The export has maintained a high growth rate since July. There is a ceiling and a floor for the urea price. The domestic fundamentals are still relatively loose [40] - Strategy Recommendation: Cautiously chase up, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on pullbacks for UR05. Pay attention to UR05 in the range of [1670 - 1710] [42] 3.10 Natural Gas - Market Review: On December 17, the NG main contract closed at 4.024 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 3.55% month - on - month [44] - Basic Logic: The demand has entered the peak consumption season, but the recent mild weather in the US has reduced the support for gas prices. The supply is relatively sufficient, and gas prices are under pressure [45] - Strategy Recommendation: The demand has support during the peak consumption season, but gas prices are under pressure due to sufficient supply. Pay attention to NG in the range of [3.762 - 4.174] [45] 3.11 Asphalt - Market Review: On December 18, the BU main contract closed at 2,952 yuan/ton, down 1.99% month - on - month [47] - Basic Logic: The price is mainly anchored to the cost - end crude oil. The oil price is weak, and the supply and demand are both weak. The South American geopolitical uncertainty is the main disturbing factor recently, causing a price rebound [48] - Strategy Recommendation: The valuation is returning to normal, and there is still about 100 yuan/ton of compression space. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has entered the off - season. Partially stop profit on short positions. Pay attention to BU in the range of [2900 - 3000] [49] 3.12 Glass - Market Review: FG05 basis is - 32 yuan/ton, FG15 is - 109 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts is 1,244 [51] - Basic Logic: The number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the factory inventory has ended a three - week decline. High inventory restricts the rebound space. The daily melting volume is stable at 155,000 tons. The profits of the three processes have turned negative. The real estate market is in an adjustment period, and the deep - processing orders are weakening [52] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short - term, stop profit on some short positions due to the support of short - term moving averages. In the long - term, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to FG in the range of [1030 - 1080] [52] 3.13 Soda Ash - Market Review: SA05 basis is - 43 yuan/ton, SA15 is - 109 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts is 4,332 [54] - Basic Logic: The factory inventory has ended a five - week decline. Short - term supply pressure has been relieved by maintenance, but there is a plan to put into production a 2.8 million - ton device of Yuanxing in late December. The long - term supply will remain loose. The cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased, and the demand support is insufficient [55] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short - term, stop profit on short positions due to the support of short - term moving averages. In the long - term, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to SA in the range of [1150 - 1200] [55]