国投期货综合晨报-20251219

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil market is affected by geopolitical issues in Venezuela and Russia-Ukraine, with oil prices under pressure before the further fermentation of geopolitical risks [2]. - Precious metals maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern, and if gold breaks through the historical high, the performance of precious metals is expected to strengthen [3]. - Base metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. show different trends, with some having short - term adjustment needs and others having medium - term upward trends [4][5][8]. - Chemical products' prices are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and policies, with varying trends of strength and weakness [12][13][14]. - Agricultural products' prices are affected by weather, supply - demand, and policies, and investors need to pay attention to relevant influencing factors [36][37][38]. - The financial market, including stock index and treasury bond, is affected by macro - economic data, policy expectations, and international market conditions, showing a pattern of volatility and differentiation [47][48]. Summary by Related Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Venezuela temporarily avoids the full - scale blockade of US - sanctioned oil tankers, and the oil export business is normal. The US plans a new round of sanctions on the Russian energy industry. Oil prices are under pressure after being priced for the rising geopolitical risks [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Geopolitical changes in Russia - Ukraine and US - Venezuela affect fuel oil prices. High - sulfur fuel oil may get short - term support, but there is medium - term supply pressure. Low - sulfur fuel oil may have short - term support but is expected to be weak in the medium term [22]. - Asphalt: Venezuela's normal oil export eases the tension of domestic refinery asphalt raw material supply. Asphalt refinery inventory accumulates, and the overall commercial inventory reduction is weak, lacking continuous rebound power [23]. Precious Metals - Precious Metals: US November CPI and core CPI fall below expectations. Fed chair candidates think there is room for interest rate cuts. Precious metals maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern, and gold is testing the resistance at the historical high [3]. Base Metals - Copper: Copper prices continue to have a narrow - range oscillation. The domestic copper inventory increases, but there is still potential for a multi - allocation rally at the end of the year, with short - term callback and consolidation [4]. - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum oscillates around 22,000 yuan. The medium - term upward - trending pattern remains unchanged, and short - term long positions can be held with the 40 - day line as support [5]. - Zinc: The TC of domestic and foreign mines decreases. Shanghai zinc rebounds after finding support at 22,800 yuan/ton. The short - term is strong, but the medium - term is under pressure [8]. - Lead: Shanghai lead oscillates at a low level. The lead concentrate is in short supply, and the cost supports the price. The import window is open, and the overall supply is sufficient, constraining the price [9]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Shanghai nickel rebounds strongly. Stainless steel spot sales are weak, and the inventory accumulates. Nickel inventory increases, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [10]. - Tin: The tin market follows the domestic market. The market focuses on the expansion of US data center construction funds in 2026, but the growth of photovoltaic production and sales is not optimistic. The inventory increases, and high - level risks should be noted [11]. Chemical Products - Carbonate Lithium: Carbonate lithium oscillates at a high level. Overseas mines keep prices firm, and the market inventory decreases. The futures price is strong, and short positions are at a disadvantage [12]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon futures fall below 60,000 yuan/ton. There is a strong expectation of capacity acquisition, but the current reality is weak. The market is expected to oscillate [13]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon approaches 8,700 yuan/ton. The demand is weak, and the cost support decreases. The increase space is limited [14]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: Affected by the macro - sentiment, PVC rises, but the demand is weak. Caustic soda oscillates strongly, but the supply pressure is large [29]. - PX & PTA: The price of PX rises strongly, driving PTA up. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA follows the cost - driven logic before the Spring Festival [30]. - Ethylene Glycol: Some ethylene glycol plants plan to have maintenance, and the supply is expected to shrink. However, it is under long - term pressure due to the planned new plant production [31]. Agricultural Products - Soybean & Soybean Meal: South American weather improves, and the market is worried about US soybean exports. Soybean meal prices will follow the oscillation of US soybeans, and waiting for weather changes is recommended [36]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The increase in the frequency of imported soybean auctions brings short - term supply pressure. Overseas palm oil has high - inventory pressure, and short - term supply - demand weakness should be noted [37]. - Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil: Canada raises the rapeseed ending inventory, and the price is under pressure. The focus is on the import policy, and a short - biased strategy is recommended [38]. - Corn: Northeast and North Port corn prices decline slightly. The short - term supply - demand mismatch eases, and the Dalian corn futures 03 contract oscillates weakly at a high level [40]. - Pig: The pig futures 01 contract hits a new low, and the 03 contract falls. The pre - Spring Festival spot price is slightly strong, but there may be a second bottom - probing after the Spring Festival [40]. - Egg: Egg futures contracts fall, and the 03 and 04 contracts after the Spring Festival fall more. The industry fundamentals are gradually improving, and chicken - chick replenishment and old - chicken elimination should be followed [41]. - Cotton: US cotton rises slightly, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates. The new cotton production increases, but the sales progress is fast, supporting the price. It is recommended to wait and see for now [42]. - Sugar: US sugar oscillates. India and Thailand have good production expectations. The domestic market focuses on the new - season production, and Guangxi has a strong production - increase expectation [43]. - Apple: Apple futures oscillate. The demand enters the off - season, and the market sentiment is bearish [44]. - Wood: Wood futures are at a low level. The supply decreases, the demand in the off - season is okay, and the low inventory supports the price. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - Pulp: Pulp prices fall slightly. The port inventory decreases, and the new - year contract has less warehouse - receipt pressure. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [46]. Financial Products - Stock Index: A - share index shows mixed performance, and stock index futures fall. The US core CPI hits a three - year low, and the risk preference is boosted. A - shares are supported by the strong RMB and policy expectations, showing an oscillating and differentiated pattern [47]. - Treasury Bond: Treasury bond futures rise across the board. Attention should be paid to the impact of US inflation data on interest rate cuts. The domestic market sentiment improves, and the long - end bond recovers significantly [48].