2026年债市展望：低利率，破局

Group 1 - The expected low interest rate environment is changing, impacting investor behavior, leading to a slowdown in both entity financing and financial expansion [6] - Financial institutions such as wealth management and insurance are altering their asset allocation strategies, influenced by changes in tax policies and new fund regulations [6] - The mainstream investment strategy in the bond market is shifting from "trading" to "coupon collection," with bond prices expected to experience sideways fluctuations and slight weakening [6] Group 2 - In 2025, the bond market experienced a review where the central bank shifted from tightening to loosening, causing fluctuations in the bond market [9] - The first quarter saw the central bank pause government bond purchases, emphasizing the need to guide financial institutions to explore effective credit demand, which raised funding rates [9] - The second quarter faced uncertainties due to tariff issues, leading to a decline in export expectations and a subsequent rise in bond prices as the central bank adopted a more accommodative stance [9] Group 3 - As of November 2025, the net financing amount of credit bonds reached the highest level in five years, with local government bonds balancing out under financing constraints [14] - The cumulative issuance of credit bonds approached 13 trillion yuan, with a net inflow exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating robust primary supply [16] - The financing increment of credit bonds is primarily driven by industrial entities, particularly in public utilities and non-bank financial sectors, while local government financing is expected to stabilize [16] Group 4 - The credit spread has been narrowing, with the strategy of holding credit bonds for coupon collection being favored in 2025 [17] - The yield on non-financial bonds has generally fallen below 2%, making it challenging to find high-yield bonds above 2.2% [17] - The overall yield of credit bonds is fluctuating at low levels, with a widening term spread, indicating difficulty in finding high-yield targets in the industrial bond sector [20] Group 5 - The convertible bond market is experiencing a decline in issuance and a decrease in the number of outstanding bonds, leading to a shrinking market [25] - The performance of the convertible bond market improved in 2025, with the index achieving a 17.12% increase, indicating strong demand despite a shrinking supply [34] - The aging characteristics of convertible bonds are becoming more pronounced, which may deter some investors but could also enhance scarcity in the short term [26] Group 6 - The changing expectations regarding low interest rates are leading to a decrease in banks' enthusiasm for participating in bond investments [50] - In 2025, banks showed a consistent lack of interest in the bond market, with funds acting independently, resulting in a historical high duration for funds without corresponding low interest rates [54] - The reduction in credit and the increasing reliance on certificates of deposit by large banks are contributing to a widening gap in government bond supply and demand [56]