Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the transition from old to new growth drivers as a key factor influencing China's economic performance, particularly in the context of the real estate market adjustment and changes in domestic population and international geopolitical landscape [2][6][9] - The report forecasts that macroeconomic policies will maintain appropriate support, with a more active fiscal policy expected to arrange 12.28 trillion yuan in new government bonds, including a general public budget deficit of 5.88 trillion yuan, local government special bonds of 4.6 trillion yuan, and special government bonds of 1.8 trillion yuan [3][14] - It is anticipated that the GDP growth rate for 2026 will be around 4.7%, with domestic demand contributing more significantly to GDP growth, particularly through stable growth in household consumption and a recovery in investment driven by major project launches and government investment expansion [9][10][14] Group 2 - The report highlights that while the real estate market adjustment continues, its impact on economic growth is expected to weaken due to its declining share in the economy, with real estate investment declines projected to narrow from -16.5% in 2025 to between -10% and -15% in 2026 [10][12][44] - Inflationary pressures are expected to ease, with the CPI projected to rise by 0.5% in 2026, driven by a recovery in food prices and stable growth in non-rent service prices, although rental prices may continue to decline [38][41][44] - The external demand and trade policy environment are expected to remain relatively stable, with export growth projected at around 3% in 2026, reflecting a slight slowdown from 5.1% in 2025 [12][13]
2026年中国经济展望：新旧动能转换与宏观治理下的稳增长
Bank of China Securities·2025-12-19 06:14