11月财政数据点评：财政跨周期的底气

Group 1: Fiscal Overview - In November, general fiscal revenue decreased by 5.2% year-on-year, compared to a decrease of 0.6% in October; general fiscal expenditure decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, compared to a decrease of 19.1% in October[2] - Tax revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8% in November, with a significant increase of 6.3% since July[3] - The budget execution of general fiscal revenue is expected to be the best since 2022, with a projected budget surplus of approximately 160 billion yuan for the year[4] Group 2: Future Revenue Support - Three key factors are expected to support fiscal revenue in the coming year: the tax effect from a bull market, corporate anti-involution, and government anti-involution[3] - The bull market is estimated to contribute approximately 310 billion yuan in incremental tax revenue, equivalent to 2% of the 2024 tax revenue[5] - Corporate anti-involution is expected to enhance price-related taxes, potentially improving the tax revenue growth rate as PPI increases[5] Group 3: Expenditure and Risks - Public fiscal expenditure in November decreased by 3.7%, an improvement from a 9.8% decrease in October, but is still lagging behind the average execution rate of the past three years[42] - The main drag on expenditure continues to be infrastructure spending, which has a significant negative impact on overall fiscal performance[42] - A potential risk to revenue is the continued decline in land sales revenue, which decreased by 26.8% year-on-year in November, reflecting broader market volatility[7]