2025年11月美国CPI数据点评：偏鸽的数据，有限的分量

Inflation Data - The November CPI in the U.S. increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1%[2] - The core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, significantly below the expected 3%, marking the lowest level since March 2021[2] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, down from the previous value of 0.3%[2] Data Collection Issues - Data collection for CPI was disrupted due to a government shutdown, leading to limited reference data for October and November[2] - The Labor Bureau used September data as a base for October due to the lack of survey data, raising concerns about data comparability[2] - The collection window for November data was extended, but this change still affects the reliability of the data[2] Market Expectations - Despite the lower inflation figures, market expectations for interest rate cuts remain largely unchanged, with a 72.3% probability of no rate change in January 2026[2] - The probability of a rate cut in March 2026 remains below 50%, indicating market skepticism about the inflation data[2] Geopolitical and Economic Risks - Potential escalation in U.S.-China tensions could significantly impact foreign trade and financial markets[5] - Geopolitical crises, such as the Israel-Palestine or Russia-Ukraine conflicts, may lead to increased global risk aversion and market volatility[5] - A downturn in the U.S. economy could exert additional pressure on the global economy, affecting trade and financial markets[5]