新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-19）-20251219

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Black Industry: Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, glass, and soda ash - rebound; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 - oscillation [2] - Finance: CSI 300 - oscillation; CSI 500 - rebound; CSI 1000 - rebound; 2 - year, 5 - year treasury bonds - oscillation; 10 - year treasury bond - consolidation [4] - Precious Metals: Gold, silver - high - level oscillation; Log - bottom rebound [6] - Light Industry: Pulp - oscillation; Offset paper - weak oscillation; Vegetable oils (soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil) - rebound; Meal products (soybean meal, rapeseed meal), soybean No.2, soybean No.1 - oscillation with a bearish bias [8] - Agriculture: Live pigs - relatively strong [9] - Soft Commodities: Rubber - oscillation; PX, PTA, MEG - oscillation; PR - wait - and - see; PF - wait - and - see [12] 2. Core Views - Black Industry: In 2026, global iron ore supply will increase significantly while demand is weak, and the implementation of the steel export license management system is a negative for raw materials. For coal coke, market sentiment has shifted from supply - side policy expectations to demand - side concerns. The steel market has rebounded due to policy support and short - term fundamental improvements, and glass has rebounded due to price drops and cold repairs [2] - Finance: The investment downward pressure has increased in 2025, and the government will take measures to expand effective investment. The stock index market shows different trends, and the bond market is relatively stable [4] - Precious Metals: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies affect its price. The short - term gold price is expected to maintain high - level oscillation, with long - term support [6] - Light Industry: The log market may bottom - rebound with weak drivers, the pulp market is in a supply - demand balance and will oscillate, and the vegetable oil market may rebound in the short - term, while the meal market is bearish [8] - Agriculture: The live pig market supply is stable, and with the increase in consumption and slaughter, the price is expected to rise slightly in the next week [9] - Soft Commodities: The natural rubber market is affected by weather and demand, and the price will oscillate. The polyester market products are mainly affected by oil prices and supply - demand, showing different trends [12] 3. Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron Ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with supply growth far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and the steel export license system is a negative for raw materials. The short - term rebound due to restocking and macro - sentiment is an opportunity to short [2] - Coal Coke: Capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment, but the steel export policy has shifted market expectations to demand - side concerns. Macro policies have a short - term positive impact, and short - sellers should stop losses [2] - Rolled Steel: Policy support and short - term fundamental improvements have led to a rebound in the black sector. The steel export policy requires a downward adjustment of export expectations and attention to production control policies [2] - Glass: Price drops, cold repairs, and inventory reduction have led to a rebound, but real - estate demand is weak, and the price will bottom - oscillate [2] Finance - Stock Index Futures/Options: Different stock index futures showed different trends on the previous trading day. The government will take measures to expand investment, and the market will oscillate in the short - term and continue the upward trend in the medium - term [4] - Treasury Bonds: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the bond market is in a consolidation state with a slight rebound trend [4] Precious Metals - Gold: The pricing mechanism is changing, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies affect its price. The short - term price will maintain high - level oscillation, with long - term support [6] - Silver: Similar to gold, it is affected by interest rate policies and market sentiment, and will maintain high - level oscillation [6] - Log: Supply pressure may gradually weaken, demand is not weak in the off - season, and the price may bottom - rebound with weak drivers [6] Light Industry - Pulp: The cost supports the price, but demand is weak, and the market will oscillate [8] - Offset Paper: Supply pressure exists, demand from publication orders provides support, and the price will weakly oscillate [8] - Vegetable Oils: After a continuous decline, the market may rebound in the short - term due to rising crude oil prices, and attention should be paid to weather and production - sales changes [8] - Meal Products and Soybeans: The supply is abundant, demand is uncertain, and the market is bearish, with attention to weather and trade risks [8] Agriculture - Live Pigs: Supply is stable, consumption has increased, and the price is expected to rise slightly in the next week [9] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Weather affects production, demand support is insufficient, and the price will oscillate [12] - Polyester Products: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, different products show different trends, such as oscillation, wait - and - see, etc. [12]