美联储如期降息，开启技术性扩表

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points (BP) on December 10, 2025, which was in line with expectations, but internal divisions within the Fed have increased, with 3 out of 12 FOMC voting members opposing the decision[2] - The Fed's economic projections for GDP growth from 2025 to 2028 have been revised upward, while the unemployment rate forecast for 2027 has been revised downward, indicating a more optimistic outlook on the economy and inflation[2] - The Fed announced a technical expansion of its balance sheet by purchasing $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities starting in December, aimed at addressing short-term market pressures[2] Group 2: Future Projections - The Fed is expected to implement 2-3 additional rate cuts in 2026 due to structural changes in the labor market and the upcoming change in Fed leadership, which may influence the pace of rate cuts[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is projected to initially decline to a low of 3.5%-3.8% in mid-2026 before rising again, reflecting the economic impact of preventive rate cuts[3] - U.S. equities, particularly in technology and interest-sensitive sectors like real estate and banking, are expected to receive continued support from lower interest rates and improved economic conditions[3] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - There is a risk that tariffs could lead to higher-than-expected inflation in the U.S., potentially triggering a spiral of inflation expectations and actual inflation[3] - The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs presents an uncertainty that could impact economic forecasts and Fed policy decisions[3]