贵金属日报-20251219

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability in the market) [1] - Silver: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability in the market) [1] Report's Core View - This week, US non - farm data verified the economic cooling trajectory. Fed Governor Farrer said monetary policy is in a restrictive range with room for rate cuts, and the employment market suggests the Fed should continue to cut rates, with the interest rate 50 to 100 basis points higher than the neutral rate. Gold has been blocked at record highs in recent days and pulled back. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through and refresh the record high. If the breakthrough is confirmed, the strong performance of precious metals is expected to continue. Tonight, focus on US GPI data and weekly initial jobless claims [1]. - The continuous rally of platinum and palladium on the GZEX, the shift of funds in the precious metals sector, and the prospects of large - scale hydrogen energy application during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period have brought higher premiums to platinum and palladium. With active trading, the market is pricing in the expected supply gap on the fundamental side. Due to the brittle supply and small market size, platinum and palladium are good long - allocation varieties. However, due to the large short - term increase, beware of the short - term multi - killing - multi market caused by funds leaving at high levels. Adopt the idea of long - allocation on pullbacks in the medium term [2]. Other Summaries - The US media reported that if Putin refuses the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, the US will impose new sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet", and the White House responded that there is no new decision for now [2]. - The US media reported that the US and Russia will hold talks on the Russia - Ukraine conflict in Miami this weekend [2]. - A joint Fed survey shows that tariffs continue to trouble enterprises, and they expect prices to rise by 4% next year [2]. - According to US media, the Trump administration's recent move to block oil tankers off the Venezuelan coast is the latest manifestation of its "gradual pressure" strategy against Venezuelan President Maduro, aiming to oust Maduro through continuous isolation and squeezing rather than immediate large - scale domestic actions [2].