海外经济政策跟踪：美联储大概率再降息，日央行或重拾加息

Economic Outlook - The US economy is in a marginal downtrend, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, and potentially 2-3 more cuts in 2026[1] - The probability of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve is approximately 87% according to CME FedWatch data[35] - Japan's central bank is expected to raise interest rates in December, with market expectations for a rate hike probability rising to 80%[36] Market Performance - Global commodity prices mostly increased, with the COMEX copper rising by 3.33% and the S&P-Goldman commodity index up by 1.94%[6] - Emerging market stock indices rose by 1.30%, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.31%[6] - The US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 12 basis points compared to the previous week[6] Key Economic Indicators - In September 2025, US industrial output increased by 1.16% year-on-year but decreased by 0.18% month-on-month[9] - US durable goods orders saw a year-on-year growth of 6.47%, down from 6.67% previously[9] - The Eurozone GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was 1.4% year-on-year, slightly down from 1.6%[24] Inflation and Consumer Sentiment - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 53.3 in December from 51.0 previously[14] - The one-year inflation expectation from Michigan University decreased to 4.1% from 4.5%[18] - Eurozone CPI increased slightly to 2.2% in November, up from 2.1%[26]