金信期货观点-20251219

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The EIA's "Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)" report predicts that global oil inventories will continue to rise in 2026, with an average price of $55 per barrel. Supply surplus pressure is the core driver of oil prices, and geopolitical factors may cause short - term rebounds but not significant surges [4] - The domestic PX load is stable this week, and there are maintenance plans in January, with expected supply contraction. The PX processing fee continues to rise. The PTA device has little change, and downstream polyester load is high, but terminal demand is weak. PTA prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost side [4] - The domestic ethylene glycol (MEG) operating rate has decreased this week, and the spot price has rebounded from the bottom. High inventory is the core factor suppressing prices. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate widely, and in the long - term, there is a downward expectation [5] - Pure benzene has reduced production due to low profits, and its domestic operation has slightly decreased with high port inventories. Downstream demand is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Styrene has a low operating rate due to many overhauls, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly with the cost side [5] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - The EIA's "Short - Term Energy Outlook (STEO)" report predicts that global oil inventories will continue to rise in 2026, with an average price of $55 per barrel [4] - The situation in Venezuela is favorable for the geopolitical level, but its oil exports are still normal. There is no new progress in deepening sanctions on the Russian energy sector [4] - Supply surplus pressure is the core driver of oil prices. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term rebounds but not significant surges [4] PX & PTA PX - The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 89.21%, unchanged from last week; the Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 78.97%, a 0.15% decrease from last week [8] - The PX - naphtha spread reached a new high of $290 per barrel this year [8] - Zhejiang Petrochemical has a more than one - month maintenance plan for CDU and reforming in January 2026, and PX is expected to reduce its load by about 10% [8] - In the fourth quarter, the maintenance of PX devices at home and abroad is limited, and the PX operation can be stably maintained at a high level. Terminal demand is expected to stabilize and recover. Overall, supply and demand are stable, and PXN is supported. PX prices are expected to fluctuate with crude oil prices [8] PTA - The PTA spot market price this week is 4,617 yuan per ton, a 16 - yuan decrease from last week. The PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate is 73.81%, unchanged from last week [12] - The in - factory inventory days are 3.76 days, a 0.1 - day decrease from last week [12] - In 2026, the domestic PTA capacity is expected to remain stable with no new capacity put into operation [12] - This week's PTA processing fee is 175 yuan per ton, a 1 - yuan decrease from last week. In the long - term, there is a view of inventory accumulation, and the PTA price rebound is limited [12] MEG - The ethylene glycol price has hit a new low this year. The weekly market price is 3,650 yuan per ton, a 4 - yuan decrease from last week [16] - The domestic ethylene glycol comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 61.71%, a 0.24% decrease from last week. The coal - based ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate is 61%, a 0.16% increase from last week [16] - The production gross profit is - 1,045 yuan per ton, an 84 - yuan increase from last week [16] - An Inner Mongolia 400,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol device has advanced its maintenance plan, and it is expected to stop until January 9, 2026 [16] - This week, the ethylene glycol port inventory has continued to rise, with the East China port inventory reaching 770,000 tons, a 15,000 - ton increase from last week [16] BZ & EB Pure Benzene - The pure benzene operating rate this week is 74.94%, a 0.17% decrease from last week [26] - The pure benzene port inventory has significantly increased to 260,000 tons, unchanged from last week [26] - Downstream PS, ABS, and EPS operating rates are all decreasing year - on - year. The demand resilience needs further observation [26] Styrene - The styrene operating rate is 69.13%, a 0.84% increase from last week, and BZN is stable at about $115 per ton [26] - Styrene has reduced inventory, with the port inventory at 146,800 tons, a 13,800 - ton decrease from last week, and the East China in - factory inventory at 102,300 tons, a 3,400 - ton decrease from last week [26] Polyester - The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry this week is 86.9%, a 0.06% increase from last week, with short - fiber inventory reduction and long - filament inventory accumulation [20] - The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 62.90%, a 0.79% decrease from the previous data [20] - The average terminal weaving order days are 11.07 days, a 0.83 - day decrease from last week; the average terminal weaving finished product inventory level is 26.12 days, a 0.54 - day increase from last week [20] - The demand of downstream industries is gradually weakening, the winter fabric stocking is coming to an end, new orders are significantly reduced, and the spring - summer order placement is hesitant [20]