玉米现货偏弱，盘面震荡回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The export volume of US corn in December has increased, but the production is at a high level. In the short - term, US corn will fluctuate slightly stronger. The 03 contract of US corn is expected to have strong support at 430 cents per bushel. The import of US corn into China is now profitable, with higher profits from Brazilian imports. Currently, farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, leading to an increase in corn supply, a continuous increase in port inventories, and weak port prices. It is expected that there will be another selling pressure on Northeast corn by the end of December. In the short - term, the supply of Northeast corn has increased, but downstream demand for replenishment is rigid, resulting in a slight decline in Northeast corn prices. The supply of North China corn has increased, causing the spot price of corn to continue to decline. The price difference between North China wheat and corn remains at a high level, and it is expected that the supply of corn will increase next week. It is expected that the supply at the northern ports will increase in the short - term, leading to a decrease in the purchase price. The 03 corn contract will fluctuate at the bottom, while the decline of the 07 corn contract is limited. For starch, the operating rate of starch factories has decreased, downstream提货 has decreased, and starch inventories have increased and remain at a high level. As the spot price of corn continues to decline, the spot price of starch is also weakening, and the profits of North China starch factories have decreased. In the future, the operating rate of starch enterprises will still increase. With the large - scale listing of new corn, there is still room for the spot price of starch to decline. It is expected that the 03 corn starch contract will fluctuate weakly following corn [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider buying US corn 03 below 430 cents per bushel. Long - term buying of 07 corn below 2240 and try to buy 05 corn around 2220 [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Consider a cumulative put strategy for 03 corn at high prices [5]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International Situation - US Corn Export and Price Trend - In December, the export of US corn was raised, and it showed a strong - side narrow - range oscillation. The 03 contract has support at 430 cents per bushel. The import tariff of US corn into China is 11%, and the import cost of US corn in February is around 2274 yuan per ton, with good import profits. As of December 18, the import profit from Brazil for the March arrival at the Guangdong port was 447 yuan per ton. As of December 16, the weekly export inspection of US corn was 1.58 million tons, with a cumulative export of 22.5 million tons. The export to China this week was 0 tons, with a cumulative export of 0 tons, accounting for 0%. In November, 560,000 tons of corn were imported, and from January to November, 1.85 million tons were imported, compared with 13.32 million tons in the same period last year [8][9][10]. - Non - commercial Net Long Position and Ethanol Production - As of December 2, the non - commercial net long position of US corn was 87,000 lots, showing a decrease. US ethanol production decreased. The 03 contract of US corn oscillated at the bottom, with strong support at 430 cents per bushel [11][15]. 3.2.2 Domestic Situation - Inventory and Consumption of Deep - processing and Feed Enterprises - The corn inventory of feed enterprises increased but was less than the same period last year. As of December 18, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills was 29.98 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.45 days and a year - on - year decrease of 2.63%. The consumption of deep - processing enterprises slightly decreased. In the 51st week of 2025 (December 11 - December 17), 1.4129 million tons of corn were consumed by 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises nationwide, a 0.38 - million - ton decrease from the previous week. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased, and it is expected to continue to rise next week. As of December 17, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 324 tons, a 10.2% increase from the previous week and a 26.7% decrease year - on - year [17][19][20]. - Port Inventory - The corn inventory at northern ports and the grain inventory at southern ports increased. As of December 12, the corn inventory at the four northern ports was 1.792 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 261,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.499 million tons. The shipping volume of the four ports that week was 684,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 124,000 tons. The domestic trade corn inventory at the Guangdong port was 191,000 tons, a 125,000 - ton increase from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory was 262,000 tons, a 13,000 - ton increase from the previous week; the imported sorghum was 174,000 tons, a 25,000 - ton decrease from the previous week; the imported barley was 603,000 tons, a 95,000 - ton increase from the previous week; and the total grain inventory was 1.23 million tons, a 208,000 - ton increase week - on - week [21][23]. - Grain Sales Progress - The grain sales progress accelerated. The overall sales progress of 13 provinces was 42%, a week - on - week increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 4%. The sales progress of 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) was 40%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 6% [24][26][27]. - Starch Situation - The operating rate of deep - processing enterprises decreased. From December 11 - December 17, the national corn processing volume was 631,700 tons, and the starch output was 328,300 tons, a 28,000 - ton decrease from the previous week. The operating rate was 62.31%, a 0.53% decrease from the previous week. The spot price of North China corn and starch decreased, and the by - product price remained stable, resulting in a decrease in enterprise profits. This week, the profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was 11 yuan, a 18 - yuan decrease from the previous week, and in Shandong it was 2 yuan, a 17 - yuan decrease. Downstream提货 decreased, the operating rate declined, and starch inventories increased. As of December 17, the corn starch inventory was 1.074 million tons, a 25,000 - ton increase from the previous week, an increase of 2.4%, a monthly increase of 0.47%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.3% [29][31]. - Substitute Situation - The wheat price was basically stable, with the North China arrival price around 2490 yuan per ton and a weak trend. The price difference between wheat and corn decreased, the North China corn price was weak, the Northeast corn price was stable, and the price difference between North China and Northeast corn decreased, as well as the price difference between North China corn and the 01 corn contract [32][37]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Livestock and Poultry Breeding - From December 11 - December 18, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was - 73 yuan per head, a 47 - yuan increase from the previous week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 234 yuan per head, an 18 - yuan increase from the previous week. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers was 0.23 yuan per bird, compared with - 0.07 yuan last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.52 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was - 0.45 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.48 yuan last week [42][48]. - Deep - processing Downstream Consumption - The operating rate of starch sugar: The operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup this week was 50.2%, a 3.06% increase from the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 51.66%, a 1.29% increase from the previous week. The operating rate of paper mills: The operating rate of corrugated paper was 65.66%, a 2.15% decrease from the previous week, and the operating rate of boxboard paper was 65.47%, a 5.0% decrease from the previous week [49][51]. - Price and Spread - The report also presented various price trends and spreads of corn, starch, wheat, sorghum, etc., including the price trends of Jinzhou Port corn flat - hatch price, Weifang starch ex - factory price, as well as the price differences between wheat and corn, sorghum and corn, and various contract spreads of corn and starch [52][54][61].