电子烟行业政策跟踪：行业监管趋严，不合规产能有望加速出清

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the electronic cigarette industry, indicating a potential increase in value relative to the market index [4]. Core Insights - The electronic cigarette industry is entering a new product life and regulatory enforcement cycle, with major brands actively engaging in market cultivation, leading to accelerated industry expansion [2][4]. - The Chinese government has issued strict regulations to combat illegal activities related to electronic cigarettes, which is expected to expedite the exit of non-compliant production capacity from the market [4]. - The report highlights that leading compliant manufacturers, such as Smoore International, are likely to benefit from the tightening regulations [4]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Environment - The State Council has emphasized comprehensive regulation of electronic cigarettes, including strict measures against illegal production, wholesale, transportation, and sales [4]. - The focus is on international cooperation to tackle non-compliant electronic cigarette exports, which will help clear out the industry [4]. Market Dynamics - Smoore International is expected to see improvements in its aerosol business due to changes in regulatory environments in the US and Europe, with a potential recovery in 2026 [4]. - British American Tobacco anticipates a single-digit decline in its aerosol business in the second half of 2025, a significant improvement compared to a 13% decline in the first half of 2025 [4]. Financial Projections - Smoore International's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.17 RMB for 2025, increasing to 0.41 RMB by 2027, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 67 in 2025 to 28 in 2027 [5]. - British American Tobacco's EPS is forecasted to rise from 2.83 GBP in 2025 to 3.09 GBP in 2027, maintaining a stable PE ratio of 15 [5].