新粮销售分化，玉米阶段回调明显

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn market is experiencing a significant phased correction, with the main corn contract shifting to 2603 and prices dropping, while the starch market is also in a continuous correction phase [3]. - There is phased selling pressure in the market due to re - auctions of imported corn and price drops, and new grain sales show regional differentiation [3]. - Port inventories are low, and downstream enterprises are increasing their inventories [4]. - There is a lack of grain substitution, and corn imports rebounded in October [4]. - The external US corn market is oscillating, with global corn ending stocks slightly decreasing [4]. - Feed demand is relatively strong, and deep - processing demand is fair [5]. - There is phased selling pressure, new grain sales are relatively fast, and there is an expectation of a shortage of high - quality grain in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Price and Basis - The main corn contract shifted to 2603 and prices recently dropped significantly, almost erasing previous gains. The spot price also slightly decreased, with the Pingcang price at Bayuquan Port dropping from 2,320 yuan/ton to 2,290 yuan/ton, and the arrival price at Shekou Port dropping from 2,460 yuan/ton to 2,430 yuan/ton. The corn basis strengthened oscillatingly, and the futures discount widened [3]. - The main starch contract shifted to 2603 and prices continuously corrected. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu decreased slightly from 2,820 yuan/ton to 2,800 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened oscillatingly [3]. 3.2 New Grain Sales - Re - auctions of imported corn dampened the price - rising enthusiasm in the market, causing futures prices to drop significantly and phased sales to increase. As of December 18, the national new grain sales progress was 42%, 4% faster than the same period last year. There was obvious regional differentiation, with the progress in the Northeast being 41%, 8% faster than the same period last year; the progress in North China being 37%, 1% slower than the same period last year; and the progress in the Northwest being 60%, 2% faster than the same period last year [3]. 3.3 Inventory Status - As of December 12, the corn inventory at northern ports was 1.792 million tons, continuing to rise but far lower than the same period last year. The weekly shipping volume was 684,000 tons, decreasing month - on - month. The domestic trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 191,000 tons, rising month - on - month; the foreign trade corn inventory was 262,000 tons, slightly increasing month - on - month [4]. - As of December 19, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 3.24 million tons, continuously rising but lower than the same period last year. The corn inventory of feed enterprises was 29.98 days, continuously rising [4]. 3.4 Import Situation - The wheat - corn price difference narrowed to around 160, and there was still no feasibility for substitution. In October, domestic corn imports rebounded significantly, with 359,000 tons imported, a five - fold increase month - on - month and a 114.7% increase year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 1.292 million tons, a 90.2% decrease year - on - year. Imports of barley and other grains decreased month - on - month [4]. 3.5 External Market Conditions - The US corn market has recently been oscillating. The US Department of Agriculture's December supply - demand report increased US corn exports and decreased its ending stocks, but overall, there is still pressure from increased production and inventory compared to last year. Global corn ending stocks were slightly decreased, a 4.85% decrease compared to last year [4]. 3.6 Market Demand - Feed demand: Pig prices are low, and pig farming continues to suffer large losses. As of December 19, the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was - 189.5 yuan per head, with losses narrowing; the profit from self - breeding and self - raising was - 130.88 yuan per head, with losses narrowing. The production capacity of breeding sows continued to decline, with 39.9 million breeding sows in stock in October, a decrease of 450,000 from the previous month. The egg price is low, and poultry farming continues to suffer losses. In October, the national industrial feed output was 29.07 million tons, rising month - on - month and a 6% increase year - on - year [5]. - Deep - processing demand: The processing profit of starch processing enterprises is differentiated, and the operating rate is relatively stable. As of December 19, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 62.31%, slightly decreasing month - on - month. The starch inventory was 1.074 million tons, rising month - on - month. Alcohol processing enterprises continue to suffer losses, and the operating rate has decreased to 65.22%. The operating rate of downstream starch sugar enterprises has increased, while that of paper - making enterprises has decreased [5]. 3.7 Market Outlook - There is phased selling pressure, new grain sales are relatively fast, and there is an expectation of a shortage of high - quality grain in the future. Grain - using enterprises are advised to purchase spot goods at low prices and appropriately increase safety reserves; traders are advised to buy at low prices and sell at high prices. Attention should be paid to the low - price opportunities of the 2605 contract [5].