印尼拟修订镍矿内贸计价方式，镍价大幅反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core View of the Report - The current fundamentals of nickel have not shown significant marginal improvement, and it is expected that the overall supply and demand in December will remain loose. LME inventories are at a high level, which exerts some pressure on prices. The Indonesian government's plan to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore and significantly reduce the nickel ore quota for 2026 has led to a significant adjustment in the market's expectations for next year's nickel costs and balance, driving up the nickel price sharply. The short - term price is expected to remain strong, but the sustainability of the upward momentum depends on policy implementation and marginal improvement in supply and demand. It is recommended that previous short - sellers temporarily exit and wait and see. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On December 19, 2025, the Shanghai nickel contract rose significantly, with an intraday increase of over 3.4% and breaking through 11,740 tons. The main reasons for the sharp rebound in nickel prices are that Indonesia plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026. One of the revision points is that the government will treat nickel's associated metals as independent commodities and levy royalties, which will push up the cost of the nickel industry chain and support the price rebound. In addition, Indonesia plans to set the 2026 nickel ore RKAB at 250 million tons, a significant decrease of about 34% compared to this year's 379 million tons. If this plan is implemented, it will have a greater impact on the 2026 nickel balance, and the surplus expectation will decline significantly. [2] Fundamental Situation - On the supply side, the domestic refined nickel production in November decreased by about 28% month - on - month to 25,800 tons, showing a significant marginal contraction, but it is not enough to effectively improve the fundamental surplus. In November, the production of MHP, ferronickel and nickel matte in Indonesia all maintained year - on - year growth, and the overall supply - side pressure of nickel still exists. On the demand side, it has entered the traditional consumption off - season. After the spot market completed phased restocking, the trading volume weakened. The stainless steel production schedule has gradually weakened month - on - month, and the consumption of nickel in electric vehicles and alloys is expected to decline. The overall fundamental surplus remains. The LME nickel inventory decreased by 60 tons to 253,900 tons yesterday, and the SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 748 tons to 37,500 tons, but the overall visible inventory is still at a high level. [3] Summary and Strategy - Currently, the fundamentals have not shown significant marginal improvement. It is expected that the overall supply and demand in December will remain loose, and the high - level LME inventory suppresses prices. The Indonesian policy adjustments have led to a significant adjustment in the market's expectations for next year's nickel costs and balance, driving up the nickel price. The short - term price is expected to remain strong, but the sustainability of the upward momentum depends on policy implementation and marginal improvement in supply and demand. It is recommended that previous short - sellers temporarily exit and wait and see. Follow - up attention should be paid to the actual implementation of relevant policies. [4]