Soochow Securities·2025-12-19 08:14Core Conclusions - The 2026 automotive industry investment strategy emphasizes "breaking old and establishing new," suggesting that the industry is at a crossroads similar to 2011 and 2018, with the end of the electric vehicle (EV) boom and the rise of smart technology [2][3] - The report predicts a total domestic demand of 22 million vehicles in 2026, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, with new energy vehicle (NEV) sales expected to reach 13.2 million, an increase of 6.4% [2][10] - The commercial vehicle sector is expected to see a wholesale volume of 1.16 million units in 2026, with a slight increase of 1.5% year-on-year, while the bus sector is projected to maintain strong export growth [2][19] Passenger Vehicle Sector - The passenger vehicle sector is projected to experience a total sales volume of 22 million units in 2026, with NEV sales expected to reach 13.2 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [2][10] - The report highlights the impact of a 5% purchase tax on NEVs starting January 1, 2026, which is expected to support domestic demand [10] - Key investment opportunities include BYD and Jianghuai Automobile in the passenger vehicle sector [2][3] Commercial Vehicle Sector - The heavy truck segment is forecasted to have a wholesale volume of 1.16 million units in 2026, with domestic sales expected to decline by 5.5% to 770,000 units, while exports are projected to grow by 18.8% [2][15] - The bus sector is expected to see a total domestic sales volume of 81,000 units, with exports anticipated to grow by over 30% [2][19] Motorcycle Sector - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 14%, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [2][22] - Domestic sales of large-displacement motorcycles are expected to reach 430,000 units, while exports are projected to grow significantly [22] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies key investment opportunities across various segments, including Yutong Bus and King Long in the bus sector, and Spring Power and Longxin General in the motorcycle sector [2][3] - The focus on L4 RoboX investment opportunities highlights the importance of software over hardware in the autonomous driving sector, with recommended stocks including XPeng Motors and Horizon Robotics [2][3] Growth Trends - The report anticipates a continued focus on smart technology and robotics, with significant growth expected in the L4 RoboX industry and AIDC (Automated Identification and Data Capture) sectors [2][3] - The penetration rate of smart driving technology in new energy vehicles is expected to reach 40% by 2026, with a notable shift in chip supplier market shares [13][14]