铝年报：现货需求不乐观，沪铝可能冲高回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the aluminum price trend may be mainly affected by factors such as the Fed's monetary policy, tariff impacts, the situation of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, economic data of major countries like China and the US, and spot supply and demand. Currently, aluminum prices are at a historical high, but downstream spot demand is not ideal. If speculative buying fades and medium - long - term energy prices decline, metal speculative funds may withdraw, and aluminum prices face significant pressure. The alumina price has fallen below the cost line, and the electrolytic aluminum smelting industry is restricted by the production capacity ceiling, maintaining high profit margins, but there is high uncertainty in the medium - long - term industrial outlook [2][3][44] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the Shanghai aluminum price generally showed an oscillating upward trend. In Q1, it was supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and China's mild economic rebound. In April, the US tariff policy caused a market slump, but then the market recovered. From September, with the Fed's restart of the interest - rate cut cycle, the aluminum price continued to rise and reached a new high in December. The London aluminum price trend was basically the same as that of Shanghai aluminum, but after China取消 the aluminum export tax rebate, the supply - demand situations at home and abroad diverged, and the outer - plate aluminum price was stronger than the inner - plate price for a long time [10] 3.2 China's Macroeconomic Situation 3.2.1 China's Monetary Policy in 2025 was Moderately Loose, and the Price Level was Basically Stable - In 2025, China's domestic monetary policy was moderately loose. The M2 growth rate rose from around 7.1% at the beginning of the year to a maximum of 8.8%. The CPI index rebounded from - 0.7% year - on - year in February to 0.7%. The PPI price index remained stable throughout the year. In 2026, China may implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which are favorable to non - ferrous metals [16] 3.2.2 China's Manufacturing Industry was Generally Stable in 2025 - In 2025, China's manufacturing PMI generally fluctuated around the critical point of 50. The service industry PMI was mostly above 50. In 2026, many domestic provinces and municipalities may expand the policy of issuing consumer vouchers to boost residents' consumption and ensure the stable operation of the national economy [17] 3.2.3 Fixed - asset Investment Reflected that the Economic Pressure was Still High - Since the peak in February 2021, China's fixed - asset investment growth rate has been declining. In 2025, the fixed - asset investment data was still poor. From January to November, the domestic fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and private fixed - asset investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year, indicating insufficient market confidence and a fragile economic recovery [22] 3.3 Analysis of Key Related Industries 3.3.1 The Real Estate Industry was Gradually Stabilizing at the Bottom - From 2024 - 2025, relevant real - estate policies were continuously introduced, but the overall performance of the real - estate industry was still not ideal. From January to November, the decline in real - estate sales area and new construction area narrowed, but the completed real - estate development investment continued to weaken. Overall, the downward trend of the real - estate industry was gradually being controlled [25] 3.3.2 The Automobile Industry was Gradually Becoming a Pillar of the National Economy, with a High Growth Rate of New Energy Vehicles - From January to November, the total domestic automobile production increased by 11% year - on - year, and the production of new energy vehicles increased by 28.1% year - on - year. In 2026, the purchase tax of new energy vehicles will be adjusted from exemption to half - exemption. Export demand may become the main growth point, and the situation of the domestic automobile industry may become a key factor determining the supply - demand relationship of non - ferrous metals [27] 3.4 Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.4.1 Global Aluminum Production Increased Slightly, with a Slight Supply Surplus - In 2025, the global energy supply became tight. The global aluminum production increased in the first half of the year and decreased in the second half. China's aluminum production trend was basically consistent with the global trend, and the year - on - year growth rate was higher than the global level. From January to October, global aluminum production increased by 0.58% year - on - year, and China's aluminum production increased by 0.88% year - on - year, with a slight supply surplus [30] 3.4.2 Policies Led to a Significant Decline in Aluminum Exports in 2025, while Imports Remained High - Due to the reduction of Russian aluminum consumption in Europe and the US, China's aluminum import and export have been booming since 2020. In 2025, aluminum imports remained high, but exports were greatly affected by the cancellation of the export tax rebate. From January to October, the total aluminum imports increased by 9.38% year - on - year, and from January to November, aluminum exports decreased by 14.93% year - on - year. It is expected that in 2026, aluminum exports may remain at about 500,000 tons per month [32] 3.4.3 Raw Material Prices Continued to Decline Throughout the Year and Still had Room to Fall in the Future - In 2025, aluminum raw material prices fluctuated significantly. Coal prices first decreased and then increased, caustic soda prices declined, and bauxite prices decreased after a high - level operation. In the coming year, domestic energy prices and supply are likely to remain stable, and bauxite supply will be stable. It is expected that aluminum raw material costs may further decrease, but aluminum prices have strong support at the bottom due to the domestic production capacity ceiling [33] 3.4.4 Low Inventories Supported Aluminum Prices to Some Extent - In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory increased significantly at the beginning of the year, decreased in the second quarter, and remained stable in the third and fourth quarters, with a slight decrease compared to the beginning of the year. The alumina inventory remained at a low level, with a small increase recently but still relatively low [35] 3.5 Macroeconomic Hot - spot Analysis 3.5.1 Policies Continued to Take Effect, and the Domestic Economy was Generally Stable - In the Central Economic Work Conference, it was emphasized that in 2026, China should implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and expand domestic demand. In 2025, China's economy remained basically stable. In 2026, the central government is expected to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which will support the spot demand for non - ferrous metals. In the future, consumption may become the most important economic support and policy focus in China [39][40][41] 3.5.2 The Economies of Europe and the US were Facing Severe Pressure, and the Fed May Continue to Promote Interest - rate Cuts after the Leadership Change - In the US, the unemployment rate rose in November 2025, and the manufacturing PMI continued to decline. The Fed cut interest rates three times in 2025, with a total reduction of 75 basis points. The euro - zone manufacturing PMI also showed a downward trend. In 2026, the US tariff policy may not change much, and the Fed may enter a new interest - rate cut cycle in the second half of the year, which may drive a new round of price increases for non - ferrous metals [42][43] 3.6 Conclusion - In 2026, the aluminum price trend may be affected by the Fed's monetary policy, tariff impacts, the Russia - Ukraine negotiation situation, economic data of major countries, and spot supply and demand. Currently, aluminum prices are at a high level, but downstream demand is not good. If speculative funds withdraw and energy prices decline in the medium - long term, aluminum prices will face pressure. The alumina price has fallen below the cost line, and the electrolytic aluminum smelting industry is restricted by the production capacity ceiling, with high uncertainty in the medium - long - term industrial outlook [44][45][46]