Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-19 09:10Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed market is affected by international factors, with domestic rapeseed products following the downward trend of international rapeseed. The short - term outlook for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is weak, but there are also some supporting factors in the domestic market [7][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Rapeseed Oil - Market Review: This week, rapeseed oil futures continued to decline, with the 05 - contract closing at 8,744 yuan/ton, a decrease of 603 yuan/ton from the previous week [7]. - Market Outlook: The AAFC raised Canada's rapeseed ending stocks for the 2025/26 season, easing the supply - demand situation and dragging down prices. Other factors include the EPA's pending biofuel blending mandates, the decline in Malaysian palm oil exports, and the drop in crude oil prices. Domestically, the supply of imported rapeseed is tightening, and oil mills are mostly shut down, leading to inventory reduction. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and potential Canadian imports may increase future supply. With ample soybean oil supply, rapeseed oil demand remains limited. The short - term trend is expected to be weakly volatile [7]. Rapeseed Meal - Market Review: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed lower, with the 05 - contract closing at 2,323 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - Market Outlook: During the US soybean export season, supply is abundant, and Brazil's high - yield forecast intensifies competition. China's procurement has slowed down, causing the US soybean futures price to fall. Domestically, near - term imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are shut down, tightening supply. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and potential Canadian imports may increase future supply. With the good substitution advantage of soybean meal, rapeseed meal demand is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to China's soybean procurement [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures declined significantly this week, with a total open interest of 208,179 lots, an increase of 37,152 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed lower, with a total open interest of 598,488 lots, an increase of 16,820 lots from last week [14]. - The net position of the top 20 traders in rapeseed oil futures was - 27,499 this week, compared to - 2,529 last week, indicating a significant increase in net short positions. The net position of the top 20 traders in rapeseed meal futures was - 74,459 this week, compared to - 70,504 last week, also showing a significant increase in net short positions [20]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 3,926 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 0 lots [27]. Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,230 yuan/ton, a significant decline from last week. The basis between the active rapeseed oil contract and the Jiangsu spot price was + 486 yuan/ton [33]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,400 yuan/ton, a slight decline from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active rapeseed meal contract was + 77 yuan/ton [39]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was - 2 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was - 59 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in recent years [45]. Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of the 05 - contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.764, and the average spot price ratio was 3.85 [48]. Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils - The 05 - contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,032 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly this week. The 05 - contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 452 yuan/ton, also narrowing slightly this week [58]. Spread between Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The 05 - contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 412 yuan/ton. As of Thursday, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 700 yuan/ton [64]. 3. Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - Supply - Side: As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 60,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from last week. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in December 2025, January, and February were 150,000, 450,000, and 420,000 tons respectively [68]. - The spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was + 1,189 yuan/ton as of December 18. As of the 50th week of 2025, the crushing volume of rapeseed in major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%. China's rapeseed imports in October 2025 were 0 tons [72][76][80]. Rapeseed Oil - Supply - Side: As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the domestic imported rapeseed oil inventory was 384,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.34%. China's rapeseed oil imports in November 2025 were 170,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the same period last year and an increase of 30,000 tons from last month [84]. - Demand - Side: As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 427,600 tons. As of the end of November, the monthly retail sales of catering services were 605.7 billion yuan. As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the weekly contract volume of domestic imported rapeseed oil was 54,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 9.98% [88][92]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply - Side: As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the domestic imported rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, the same as last week. China's rapeseed meal imports in October 2025 were 220,600 tons, a decrease of 85,700 tons from the same period last year and an increase of 63,000 tons from last month [96][100]. - Demand - Side: As of November 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,977,900 tons [104]. 4. Options Market Analysis - As of December 19, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 16.49%, a decrease of 0.71% from last week, at a medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [108].