数据点评：美国11月CPI远低于预期，为明年1月降息保留可能性

Inflation Data - The overall CPI inflation rate in the U.S. decreased from 3.0% in September to 2.7% in November, significantly below the market expectation of 3.1%[1] - The core CPI inflation rate also fell by 0.4 percentage points to 2.6%, lower than the expected 3.0%, marking the lowest level since April 2021[1] Core Services and Housing Impact - The decline in core services CPI, particularly housing prices, was the main driver behind the unexpected drop in core CPI, with core services CPI inflation decreasing from 3.5% in September to 3.0% in November[2] - Housing CPI inflation fell from 3.6% to 3.0%, with owner-equivalent rent CPI decreasing by 0.4 percentage points to 3.4% and lodging away from home CPI plummeting by 4 percentage points to -4.1%[2] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, surpassing the market expectation of 50,000, while October saw a decrease of 105,000 jobs, primarily due to government layoffs[3] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November, exceeding the expected 4.5%[3] Future Economic Outlook - The report suggests that tariffs will continue to be a key factor influencing core inflation rates, with potential short-term rebounds in core inflation expected[4] - The expectation is that core inflation rates will begin to decline in the second half of next year, assuming no new tariffs are implemented[5] Federal Reserve Policy Predictions - The forecast maintains the possibility of two 25 basis point rate cuts next year, driven by slowing economic momentum and a weakening labor market[5] - The Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts until early next year to assess the impact of upcoming employment and inflation data[5]