Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-19 09:16Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1670 - 1730 in the short - term [7]. - The urea market first declined and then rebounded slightly this week. After India's new urea tender, the futures price rose, and the spot market sentiment was boosted [8]. - New device overhauls led to a slight decrease in domestic urea production this week. Production is expected to increase slightly next week. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate may decline steadily [8]. - Domestic urea enterprise inventories continued to decline this week, and there is a possibility of further destocking in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1670 - 1730 in the short - term [7]. - Market review: The urea market first declined and then rebounded slightly. The average price in Shandong increased by 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. After India's tender, the futures price rose, and the spot market improved [8]. - Market outlook: Production may increase slightly next week. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate may decline. Enterprise inventories may continue to decline [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price trend: The main contract price of Zhengzhou urea futures rose by 0.83% this week [11]. - Inter - delivery spread: As of December 19, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 19 [14]. - Open interest analysis: There is no specific analysis content in the provided text. - Warehouse receipts: As of December 19, there were 10976 urea warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou, a decrease of 320 from last week [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic price: As of December 18, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1710 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1700 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) [28]. - Overseas price: As of December 18, the FOB price of urea in China was 387.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton from last week [32]. - Basis: As of December 18, the urea basis was 2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Coal price: As of December 17, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week [39]. - Natural gas price: As of December 18, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.95 dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.16 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Capacity utilization and production: As of December 18, China's urea production was 136.59 tons, a decrease of 1.95 tons from the previous period, a 1.41% week - on - week decrease. The capacity utilization rate was 80.69%, a 1.16% decrease from the previous period [42]. - Inventory: As of December 18, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 13.8 tons, a 12.20% increase from the previous period. As of December 17, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 117.97 tons, a 4.42% decrease from last week [45]. - Export: In October 2025, urea exports were 120.25 tons, a 12.30% decrease from the previous month, and the average export price was 432.05 dollars/ton, a 10.83% decrease from the previous month [48]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Compound fertilizer: As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 39.37%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous period [51]. - Melamine: As of December 18, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 58.55%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points from last week [51].