Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-19 09:16Report Summary 1. Strategy Suggestion - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 in the short term [7] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the port methanol market strengthened, while the inland market was weak. The overall methanol production increased as the output from restored capacity exceeded the loss from maintenance and reduction. Inland supply was abundant, and enterprise inventory increased. Port inventory showed a narrow decline overall, with different trends in East and South China. The MTO industry's weekly average operation rate decreased, but it is expected to increase slightly in the short term [8] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Condition: The port methanol market strengthened, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2070 - 2190 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2050 - 2130 yuan/ton. Inland prices were weak, with Ordos' price ranging from 1950 - 1973 yuan/ton and Dongying's receiving price from 2225 - 2230 yuan/ton [8] - Market Outlook: Domestic methanol production increased. Inland supply was sufficient, and enterprise inventory increased. Port inventory decreased slightly overall. The MTO industry's operation rate is expected to increase slightly in the short term [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Price Trend: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillated and closed higher, with a weekly increase of 2.33% [12] - Inter - delivery Spread: As of December 19, the MA 5 - 9 spread was 26 [16] - Warehouse Receipts: As of December 18, there were 6789 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 1834 from last week [23] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Prices: As of December 18, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2167.5 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1925 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 242.5 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from last week [29] - Foreign Prices: As of December 18, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 251 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 67 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton from last week [34] - Basis: As of December 18, the Zhengzhou methanol basis was - 6.5 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from last week [37] 3.4 Industry Chain - Upstream: As of December 17, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of December 18, the NYMEX natural gas closed at 3.95 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.16 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [42] - Industry: As of December 18, China's methanol production was 2055975 tons, an increase of 18370 tons from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.52%, a week - on - week increase of 0.90%. As of December 17, the inventory of sample production enterprises was 39.11 million tons, an increase of 3.83 million tons from the previous period, and the order backlog was 22.04 million tons, an increase of 1.30 million tons from the previous period. The total port inventory was 121.88 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons from the previous period. In October 2025, China's methanol imports were 161.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.01%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative imports were 1127.93 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.10%. As of December 18, the import profit was 5.45 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.7 yuan/ton from last week [47][50][54] - Downstream: As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 89.49%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%. As of December 19, the domestic methanol - to - olefins spot profit was - 1031 yuan/ton, a decrease of 198 yuan/ton from last week [57][60]